TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Cesta Havrda vs Vladimir Kubat 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11810121131210––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:46 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeCesta Havrda to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingCesta Havrda above · Vladimir Kubat below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 77 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Cesta Havrda at 63.7%
77 points played in total.
H2H Cesta Havrda 32–17 Vladimir Kubat Vladimir Kubat has won 17 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:4663.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Havrda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
32-17 in 49
Havrda
Correct
gap of 15 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Havrda 1043 vs Kubat 1061
Kubat
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Havrda 40% vs Kubat 80%
Kubat
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Havrda 40% vs Kubat 80%
Kubat
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Havrda -2 · Kubat +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Havrda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubat form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHavrda 1.50 / Kubat 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Havrda)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13248562
Havrda1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 01)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 20 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it78% 14 of 18
Kubat2.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 11 days ago (Sep 25) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 18 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back32% 8 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHavrda8wins
AwayKubat2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHavrda leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHavrda100%4 of 4
AwayKubat33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Havrda4Kubat6n = 10Kubat took 6 of 10
S2Havrda7Kubat3n = 10Havrda took 7 of 10
S3Havrda9Kubat1n = 10Havrda took 9 of 10
S4Havrda3Kubat4n = 7Kubat took 4 of 7
S5Havrda3Kubat0n = 3Havrda took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHavrdaKubatH − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.432.9+6.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHavrdaKubatBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 237 vs 113 / 27841.8%40.7%99 / 237 vs 113 / 278Avg sets wonper match1.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.035.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HavrdaHavrda 1.50/Kubat 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Havrda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Havrda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 12:58C. Havrda32681171V. Kubat3811115113
WAug 24 · 11:00C. Havrda341111123V. Kubat2358100
WAug 12 · 08:00C. Havrda44114117113V. Kubat3861121182
WJul 21 · 08:00C. Havrda331111113V. Kubat227870
WApr 20 · 12:30C. Havrda49711911113V. Kubat4311711592
WApr 2 · 08:58C. Havrda341112113V. Kubat1841040
WApr 2 · 08:30C. Havrda43101111113V. Kubat29124671
WMar 31 · 12:58C. Havrda529111110113V. Kubat4611991252
LMar 31 · 12:30C. Havrda33771181V. Kubat4111118113
WMar 30 · 10:30C. Havrda4071111113V. Kubat31112991
C. Havrda10
LOct 1 · 13:00L. Novotny1.5811914113C. Havrda2.257111231LOct 1 · 12:30C. Havrda3.002690L. Madle1.361111113WOct 1 · 11:00C. Havrda2.7511811113L. Novotny1.40711841LOct 1 · 10:00J. Cernik1.361111123C. Havrda3.0078100WSep 16 · 13:12J. Strnad2.501111881C. Havrda1.5013611113LSep 16 · 12:00L. Novotny1.531211113C. Havrda2.3810450LSep 16 · 11:00J. Strnad2.38521111113C. Havrda1.5311114672LSep 16 · 10:30C. Havrda2.639840J. Cernik1.441111113WSep 9 · 13:30P. Serak1.4611760C. Havrda2.371311113WSep 9 · 12:00C. Havrda2.001311113P. Petr1.7311890
V. Kubat10
WSep 25 · 09:30P. Petr1.53119691V. Kubat2.3831111113LSep 25 · 08:30P. Petr1.8091111113V. Kubat1.91117751WSep 25 · 07:30V. Kubat1.4091111113J. Koch2.75118671WSep 25 · 06:30J. Pantak1.2561161192V. Kubat3.75119117113WSep 17 · 12:59V. Kubat1.50131111113J. Stary2.50159471LSep 17 · 12:00J. Koch3.2511118113V. Kubat1.33871181WSep 17 · 11:00J. Strnad1.57791191V. Kubat2.2511116113WSep 17 · 10:30V. Kubat1.6111411113J. Stary2.20611591WSep 16 · 09:30V. Kubat2.0081111113P. Petr1.72113951WSep 16 · 08:30V. Kubat1.361311113J. Koch3.0011520
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.