TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13139472
Played Sep 16Finished
Vladimir Kubat
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811113119115––
Pavel Petr
Away
1.72
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:57 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timePavel Petr to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladimir Kubat above · Pavel Petr below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 69 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Pavel Petr at 54.2%
69 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Kubat 3–5 Pavel Petr Vladimir Kubat has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Kubat beat Petr 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:57What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.72 (54%)
Petr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Petr
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubat 1008 vs Petr 1139
Petr
Wrong
both rated, 130 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubat 40% vs Petr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubat 30% vs Petr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubat +1 · Petr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Petr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Petr form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubat 2.00 / Petr 1.72
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Petr)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13139472
Kubat2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 19 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back24% 8 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Petr1.72
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite62% won 24 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKubat3wins
AwayPetr5wins
4 of 8 to a deciderPetr leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubat50%2 of 4
AwayPetr75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubat4Petr4n = 8split evenly
S2Kubat4Petr4n = 8split evenly
S3Kubat3Petr5n = 8Petr took 5 of 8
S4Kubat6Petr1n = 7Kubat took 6 of 7
S5Kubat0Petr4n = 4Petr took 4 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away450%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricKubatPetrK − PBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match41.440.5+0.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubatPetrBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 293 vs 78 / 13639.3%57.4%115 / 293 vs 78 / 136Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PetrKubat 2.00/Petr 1.72
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.2%
Petr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kubat won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 16 · 06:00V. Kubat4011117113P. Petr35691191
LAug 18 · 07:00V. Kubat4579111172P. Petr44111129113
LJul 8 · 06:00V. Kubat229940P. Petr331111113
WJun 17 · 07:00V. Kubat4171112113P. Petr311151051
LMay 6 · 08:00V. Kubat4611781192P. Petr49811118113
LMar 11 · 08:00V. Kubat4811119892P. Petr48961111113
WFeb 16 · 10:30V. Kubat44111111113P. Petr35981351
LFeb 16 · 09:30V. Kubat45122111192P. Petr49141158113
V. Kubat10
WSep 16 · 08:30V. Kubat1.361311113J. Koch3.0011520LSep 16 · 07:00V. Kubat1.615914131J. Stary2.20111112153WSep 16 · 06:00P. Petr1.53691191V. Kubat2.3811117113LAug 28 · 08:59J. Cernik1.611311113V. Kubat2.2011940LAug 28 · 08:30V. Kubat3.256690L. Novotny1.331111113LAug 28 · 07:00V. Kubat2.388560J. Cernik1.531111113LAug 28 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.001111123V. Kubat1.7397100LAug 27 · 09:08V. Kubat2.7510750L. Novotny1.401211113LAug 27 · 08:30J. Strnad1.80611911113V. Kubat1.9111811292WAug 27 · 07:30V. Kubat1.831111113A. Tkachenko1.839780
P. Petr10
WSep 16 · 08:00P. Petr1.3391111113J. Stary3.25118671WSep 16 · 07:30J. Koch2.50118791P. Petr1.5071111113LSep 16 · 06:00P. Petr1.53691191V. Kubat2.3811117113LSep 9 · 12:59P. Petr1.2261181182J. Stary4.00118115113LSep 9 · 12:00C. Havrda2.001311113P. Petr1.7311890LSep 9 · 11:00P. Serak3.0021111113P. Petr1.36114991WSep 9 · 10:30P. Petr1.3351111113J. Stary3.25114381WAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.10111111113P. Petr1.67491371LAug 21 · 07:00J. Strnad1.911114113P. Petr1.8061250
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