TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Cesta Havrda vs Ladislav Novotny 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117811118114––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:58 and never touched: 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeLadislav Novotny to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingCesta Havrda above · Ladislav Novotny below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 71 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Ladislav Novotny at 66.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Cesta Havrda 13–16 Ladislav Novotny Cesta Havrda has won 13 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5866.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 4.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Novotny
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-16 in 29
Novotny
Wrong
gap of 3 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Havrda 1046 vs Novotny 1155
Novotny
Wrong
both rated, 109 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Havrda 20% vs Novotny 60%
Novotny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Havrda 40% vs Novotny 60%
Novotny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Havrda -1 · Novotny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Novotny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHavrda 2.75 / Novotny 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Novotny)-4.7pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13221508
Havrda2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 15 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back4% 1 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Novotny1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 49 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it76% 37 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHavrda3wins
AwayNovotny7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHavrda42.9%3 of 7
AwayNovotny100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Havrda7Novotny3n = 10Havrda took 7 of 10
S2Havrda6Novotny4n = 10Havrda took 6 of 10
S3Havrda4Novotny6n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S4Havrda1Novotny6n = 7Novotny took 6 of 7
S5Havrda0Novotny3n = 3Novotny took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHavrdaNovotnyH − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.436.7−2.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHavrdaNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 237 vs 196 / 39742.2%49.4%100 / 237 vs 196 / 397Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyHavrda 2.75/Novotny 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.7%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Havrda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 12:00C. Havrda1910450L. Novotny341211113
WAug 25 · 12:00C. Havrda331111113L. Novotny187470
LJun 30 · 13:28C. Havrda291111431L. Novotny4213711113
LJun 30 · 12:00C. Havrda4111811472L. Novotny45711511113
LJun 23 · 09:30C. Havrda31811931L. Novotny4011711113
LJun 23 · 06:30C. Havrda3911116652L. Novotny48961111113
LJun 2 · 08:59C. Havrda4311511792L. Novotny47611811113
LJun 2 · 06:30C. Havrda301181011L. Novotny4061112113
WMay 11 · 11:30C. Havrda331111113L. Novotny199460
WApr 20 · 11:00C. Havrda46111113113L. Novotny34581561
C. Havrda10
LOct 1 · 10:00J. Cernik1.361111123C. Havrda3.0078100WSep 16 · 13:12J. Strnad2.501111881C. Havrda1.5013611113LSep 16 · 12:00L. Novotny1.531211113C. Havrda2.3810450LSep 16 · 11:00J. Strnad2.38521111113C. Havrda1.5311114672LSep 16 · 10:30C. Havrda2.639840J. Cernik1.441111113WSep 9 · 13:30P. Serak1.4611760C. Havrda2.371311113WSep 9 · 12:00C. Havrda2.001311113P. Petr1.7311890WSep 9 · 11:30J. Stary1.67118391C. Havrda2.1091111113LSep 9 · 10:00C. Havrda2.2511811632P. Serak1.57811311113LSep 1 · 12:59C. Havrda3.759780A. Hejduk1.251111113
L. Novotny10
LOct 1 · 10:30L. Novotny1.8086110L. Madle1.911111133WOct 1 · 09:29L. Novotny1.831111113J. Potensky1.837780LOct 1 · 08:30L. Novotny1.9181171172A. Hejduk1.80115117113WOct 1 · 07:00L. Novotny2.2011116113J. Potensky1.61761151WOct 1 · 06:00J. Grohsgott1.4011591192L. Novotny2.75611119113LSep 30 · 13:30D. Mutl1.6091111113L. Novotny2.20118871LSep 30 · 12:30L. Novotny2.20101070D. Mutl1.611212113WSep 30 · 11:00L. Novotny1.80111411113J. Cernik1.911312751WSep 30 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.57711681L. Novotny2.2511611113WSep 16 · 12:00L. Novotny1.531211113C. Havrda2.3810450
Upcoming Matches
C. Havrda
L. Novotny
Nothing scheduled
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