TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ladislav Novotny vs Ludek Madle 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8116111113––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:16 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Novotny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Ludek Madle below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 60 set 3, 11-13 · our read held Ladislav Novotny at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Novotny 2–1 Ludek Madle Ludek Madle has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:1654.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Novotny
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1169 vs Madle 1154
Novotny
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 60% vs Madle 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 60% vs Madle 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny +1 · Madle -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Novotny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.80 / Madle 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Novotny)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13221511
Novotny1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 49 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it76% 37 of 49
Madle1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 38 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back8% 3 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeNovotny2wins
AwayMadle1wins
Novotny leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny66.7%2 of 3
AwayMadlen = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny3Madle0n = 3Novotny took 3 of 3
S2Novotny2Madle1n = 3Novotny took 2 of 3
S3Novotny2Madle1n = 3Novotny took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricNovotnyMadleN − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match33.325.7+7.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyMadleBasisWin rate · lifetime196 / 396 vs 258 / 54349.5%47.5%196 / 396 vs 258 / 543Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyNovotny 1.80/Madle 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Madle won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 14 · 13:00L. Novotny341111123L. Madle2046100
WSep 14 · 10:00L. Novotny331111113L. Madle225890
LJul 15 · 07:00L. Novotny33119851L. Madle3521111113
L. Novotny10
LOct 1 · 11:00C. Havrda2.7511811113L. Novotny1.40711841WOct 1 · 09:29L. Novotny1.831111113J. Potensky1.837780LOct 1 · 08:30L. Novotny1.9181171172A. Hejduk1.80115117113WOct 1 · 07:00L. Novotny2.2011116113J. Potensky1.61761151WOct 1 · 06:00J. Grohsgott1.4011591192L. Novotny2.75611119113LSep 30 · 13:30D. Mutl1.6091111113L. Novotny2.20118871LSep 30 · 12:30L. Novotny2.20101070D. Mutl1.611212113WSep 30 · 11:00L. Novotny1.80111411113J. Cernik1.911312751WSep 30 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.57711681L. Novotny2.2511611113WSep 29 · 08:58L. Forman1.4411131091L. Novotny2.63131112113
L. Madle10
LSep 28 · 09:30L. Madle1.4311661142J. Martinek2.60711115113WSep 28 · 08:30L. Madle1.571111113J. Strnad2.256470WSep 28 · 07:00L. Madle1.4061111113M. Marjan2.75115851WSep 28 · 06:00J. Martinek1.91611661L. Madle1.8011911113LSep 24 · 09:30T. Kucera1.851411113L. Madle1.8512240LSep 24 · 08:30L. Madle1.4415780J. Strnad2.631711113WSep 24 · 07:00L. Madle1.531116113J. Pantak2.3821490WSep 24 · 06:00T. Kucera2.0011611742L. Madle1.73711511113WSep 23 · 08:58L. Madle1.361113133M. Smesny3.00911110WSep 23 · 08:30M. Smesny2.63551161L. Madle1.4411119113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.