TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jaromir Cernik vs Cesta Havrda 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171181210––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:54 and never touched: 70.0% is still 70.0%
Graded at full timeJaromir Cernik to win
70.0%
70.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJaromir Cernik above · Cesta Havrda below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 59 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Jaromir Cernik at 70.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Jaromir Cernik 20–16 Cesta Havrda Cesta Havrda has won 16 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:5470.0%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.4pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Cernik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-16 in 36
Cernik
Correct
gap of 4 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 1145 vs Havrda 1056
Cernik
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 20% vs Havrda 40%
Havrda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 40% vs Havrda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik -1 · Havrda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Cernik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (20%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 1.363 / Havrda 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Cernik)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222331
Cernik1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 57 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it81% 38 of 47
Havrda3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 15 days ago (Sep 16) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 15 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back4% 1 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernik8wins
AwayHavrda2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik100%6 of 6
AwayHavrda50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik6Havrda4n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S2Cernik9Havrda1n = 10Cernik took 9 of 10
S3Cernik5Havrda5n = 10split evenly
S4Cernik5Havrda2n = 7Cernik took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernikHavrdaC − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.433.1+5.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikHavrdaBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 780 vs 102 / 24045.4%42.5%354 / 780 vs 102 / 240Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CernikCernik 1.36/Havrda 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 10:30J. Cernik331111113C. Havrda219840
WSep 1 · 12:00J. Cernik331111113C. Havrda189540
WJul 22 · 12:00J. Cernik3961111113C. Havrda32118671
LJun 30 · 11:30J. Cernik4081110111C. Havrda4511912133
WJun 9 · 11:00J. Cernik44111111113C. Havrda28461351
LMay 18 · 12:30J. Cernik305111041C. Havrda4211812113
WApr 7 · 10:30J. Cernik3811111153C. Havrda419811131
WMar 31 · 11:00J. Cernik351113113C. Havrda2031160
WMar 24 · 13:58J. Cernik47771111113C. Havrda4511116892
WMar 24 · 13:00J. Cernik45131110113C. Havrda391181281
J. Cernik10
LSep 30 · 13:00J. Cernik4.0088111182M. Vaclavik1.22111194113WSep 30 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.22111211862J. Cernik4.00614611113LSep 30 · 11:00L. Novotny1.80111411113J. Cernik1.911312751LSep 30 · 10:30J. Cernik2.25881131D. Mutl1.5711118113LSep 30 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.3611611113J. Cernik3.00911771WSep 30 · 08:00J. Cernik2.251151111113D. Mutl1.5731181392WSep 30 · 07:30M. Vrabec1.36111186112J. Cernik3.00591111133LSep 30 · 06:30J. Cernik1.8511561142J. Potensky1.85411115113LSep 28 · 03:30J. Cernik2.609250J. Grohsgott1.451111113WSep 28 · 02:00V. Stach1.6197110J. Cernik2.201111133
C. Havrda10
WSep 16 · 13:12J. Strnad2.501111881C. Havrda1.5013611113LSep 16 · 12:00L. Novotny1.531211113C. Havrda2.3810450LSep 16 · 11:00J. Strnad2.38521111113C. Havrda1.5311114672LSep 16 · 10:30C. Havrda2.639840J. Cernik1.441111113WSep 9 · 13:30P. Serak1.4611760C. Havrda2.371311113WSep 9 · 12:00C. Havrda2.001311113P. Petr1.7311890WSep 9 · 11:30J. Stary1.67118391C. Havrda2.1091111113LSep 9 · 10:00C. Havrda2.2511811632P. Serak1.57811311113LSep 1 · 12:59C. Havrda3.759780A. Hejduk1.251111113LSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Cernik
Oct 1 · 11:30J. Cernik2.25L. Madle1.57—Oct 1 · 12:00J. Cernik2.00L. Novotny1.73—Oct 1 · 14:30J. Cernik2.63Z. Kasinski1.44—Oct 1 · 15:00J. Cernik1.83V. Stach1.83—Oct 1 · 16:00J. Cernik3.00M. Vaclavik1.36—Oct 2 · 22:00J. Cernik—J. Potensky——Oct 2 · 23:00J. Cernik—L. Havrda——Oct 3 · 00:30J. Cernik—V. Stach——Oct 3 · 02:00J. Cernik—J. Martinek——
C. Havrda
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