TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Miroslav Vaclavik vs Jaromir Cernik 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161214116811611
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:58 and never touched: 82.9% is still 82.9%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vaclavik to win
82.9%
82.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslav Vaclavik above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 96 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Miroslav Vaclavik at 82.9%
96 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Vaclavik 14–6 Jaromir Cernik Jaromir Cernik has won 6 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5882.9%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
clears by 1.1pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Vaclavik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-6 in 20
Vaclavik
Wrong
gap of 8 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vaclavik 1259 vs Cernik 1139
Vaclavik
Wrong
both rated, 120 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vaclavik 60% vs Cernik 40%
Vaclavik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vaclavik 70% vs Cernik 40%
Vaclavik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vaclavik -2 · Cernik -3
Cernik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% · Strong (leans Vaclavik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVaclavik 1.222 / Cernik 4.00
Signal prob.83% / 17%
Edge (Vaclavik)+1.1pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13216678
Vaclavik1.22
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 52 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it82% 45 of 55
Cernik4.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 57 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back16% 17 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVaclavik8wins
AwayCernik2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVaclavik leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVaclavik100%7 of 7
AwayCernik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vaclavik7Cernik3n = 10Vaclavik took 7 of 10
S2Vaclavik7Cernik3n = 10Vaclavik took 7 of 10
S3Vaclavik9Cernik1n = 10Vaclavik took 9 of 10
S4Vaclavik3Cernik0n = 3Vaclavik took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVaclavikCernikV − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.729.0+7.7per matchSweeps61+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVaclavikCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime120 / 217 vs 355 / 78455.3%45.3%120 / 217 vs 355 / 784Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VaclavikVaclavik 1.22/Cernik 4.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
82.9%
Vaclavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 00:30M. Vaclavik341211113J. Cernik2210660
WSep 26 · 12:00M. Vaclavik43111011113J. Cernik30712381
LSep 21 · 13:01M. Vaclavik226790J. Cernik331111113
WSep 21 · 10:30M. Vaclavik341112113J. Cernik1761010
WSep 21 · 06:30M. Vaclavik331111113J. Cernik154380
WSep 18 · 07:30M. Vaclavik4681111163J. Cernik421189141
WSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik351111133J. Cernik2485110
WJul 24 · 02:00M. Vaclavik351311113J. Cernik2611690
WJun 12 · 00:30M. Vaclavik331111113J. Cernik227870
LMay 23 · 13:30M. Vaclavik52413111682J. Cernik591115814113
M. Vaclavik10
LSep 30 · 11:30D. Mutl2.75111211113M. Vaclavik1.40814881LSep 30 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.57711681L. Novotny2.2511611113WSep 29 · 09:28M. Vaclavik1.44121112113A. Hejduk2.631091481WSep 29 · 08:00M. Vaclavik1.671111811113L. Novotny2.1081311562WSep 29 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.504116111M. Vaclavik1.5011711133WSep 29 · 06:30M. Vaclavik1.83411411113L. Forman1.8311611962WSep 28 · 02:58M. Vaclavik1.831113113V. Stach1.8381140LSep 28 · 01:30M. Vaclavik1.73168851J. Grohsgott2.00141111113WSep 28 · 00:30J. Cernik3.5010660M. Vaclavik1.281211113WSep 27 · 23:30J. Potensky2.106490M. Vaclavik1.671111113
J. Cernik10
LSep 30 · 11:00L. Novotny1.80111411113J. Cernik1.911312751LSep 30 · 10:30J. Cernik2.25881131D. Mutl1.5711118113LSep 30 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.3611611113J. Cernik3.00911771WSep 30 · 08:00J. Cernik2.251151111113D. Mutl1.5731181392WSep 30 · 07:30M. Vrabec1.36111186112J. Cernik3.00591111133LSep 30 · 06:30J. Cernik1.8511561142J. Potensky1.85411115113LSep 28 · 03:30J. Cernik2.609250J. Grohsgott1.451111113WSep 28 · 02:00V. Stach1.6197110J. Cernik2.201111133LSep 28 · 00:30J. Cernik3.5010660M. Vaclavik1.281211113WSep 27 · 23:00J. Cernik3.001111113J. Grohsgott1.366690
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