TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Cesta Havrda vs Ludek Madle 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211611911––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:19 and never touched: 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeLudek Madle to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingCesta Havrda above · Ludek Madle below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 50 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Ludek Madle at 70.4%
50 points played in total.
H2H Cesta Havrda 1–9 Ludek Madle Cesta Havrda has won 1 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1970.4%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.0pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Madle
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-9 in 10
Madle
Correct
gap of 8 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Havrda 1061 vs Madle 1179
Madle
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Havrda 40% vs Madle 80%
Madle
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Havrda 50% vs Madle 70%
Madle
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Havrda +1 · Madle +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Madle) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHavrda 3.00 / Madle 1.363
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Madle)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222505
Havrda3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 15 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back4% 1 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Madle1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 67 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it73% 51 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHavrda1wins
AwayMadle9wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMadle leads 9–1, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHavrda0%0 of 3
AwayMadle85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Havrda3Madle7n = 10Madle took 7 of 10
S2Havrda4Madle6n = 10Madle took 6 of 10
S3Havrda3Madle7n = 10Madle took 7 of 10
S4Havrda4Madle4n = 8split evenly
S5Havrda1Madle5n = 6Madle took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHavrdaMadleH − MBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.043.3−6.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHavrdaMadleBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 236 vs 259 / 54242%47.8%99 / 236 vs 259 / 542Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MadleHavrda 3.00/Madle 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.4%
Madle · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Madle won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 27 · 11:30C. Havrda50711111382L. Madle471113111113
LMar 17 · 07:30C. Havrda2511770L. Madle351311113
LMay 28 · 09:30C. Havrda341266101L. Madle44101111123
LMay 28 · 06:00C. Havrda3711114472L. Madle44651111113
LApr 29 · 13:00C. Havrda154650L. Madle331111113
LApr 29 · 10:00C. Havrda50111199102L. Madle45651111123
LJan 27 · 11:00C. Havrda4771191552L. Madle521161113113
WJan 22 · 09:00C. Havrda49811811113L. Madle4211911922
LJan 21 · 08:30C. Havrda22601151L. Madle4111118113
LJan 6 · 09:30C. Havrda4139111172L. Madle50111189113
C. Havrda10
LOct 1 · 13:00L. Novotny1.5811914113C. Havrda2.257111231WOct 1 · 11:00C. Havrda2.7511811113L. Novotny1.40711841LOct 1 · 10:00J. Cernik1.361111123C. Havrda3.0078100WSep 16 · 13:12J. Strnad2.501111881C. Havrda1.5013611113LSep 16 · 12:00L. Novotny1.531211113C. Havrda2.3810450LSep 16 · 11:00J. Strnad2.38521111113C. Havrda1.5311114672LSep 16 · 10:30C. Havrda2.639840J. Cernik1.441111113WSep 9 · 13:30P. Serak1.4611760C. Havrda2.371311113WSep 9 · 12:00C. Havrda2.001311113P. Petr1.7311890WSep 9 · 11:30J. Stary1.67118391C. Havrda2.1091111113
L. Madle10
WOct 1 · 11:30L. Madle1.5713111114183J. Cernik2.25159916162WOct 1 · 10:30L. Novotny1.8086110L. Madle1.911111133LSep 28 · 09:30L. Madle1.4311661142J. Martinek2.60711115113WSep 28 · 08:30L. Madle1.571111113J. Strnad2.256470WSep 28 · 07:00L. Madle1.4061111113M. Marjan2.75115851WSep 28 · 06:00J. Martinek1.91611661L. Madle1.8011911113LSep 24 · 09:30T. Kucera1.851411113L. Madle1.8512240LSep 24 · 08:30L. Madle1.4415780J. Strnad2.631711113WSep 24 · 07:00L. Madle1.531116113J. Pantak2.3821490WSep 24 · 06:00T. Kucera2.0011611742L. Madle1.73711511113
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