TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ludek Madle vs Jaromir Cernik 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
131511911914161816
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:27 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeLudek Madle to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLudek Madle above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 14-16
Set 5 · 18-16
Point 132 set 5, 18-16 · our read held Ludek Madle at 58.9%
132 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Madle 17–17 Jaromir Cernik Dead even across their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2758.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Madle
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-17 in 34
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Madle 1179 vs Cernik 1145
Madle
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Madle 80% vs Cernik 40%
Madle
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Madle 70% vs Cernik 40%
Madle
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Madle +1 · Cernik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Madle) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Madle form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMadle 1.571 / Cernik 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Madle)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13221653
Madle1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 67 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it73% 51 of 70
Cernik2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 60 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back17% 19 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMadle6wins
AwayCernik4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMadle leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMadle75%3 of 4
AwayCernik50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Madle4Cernik6n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S2Madle6Cernik4n = 10Madle took 6 of 10
S3Madle9Cernik1n = 10Madle took 9 of 10
S4Madle3Cernik4n = 7Cernik took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMadleCernikM − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.936.5+3.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMadleCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime259 / 542 vs 354 / 78047.8%45.4%259 / 542 vs 354 / 780Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MadleMadle 1.57/Cernik 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Madle · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Madle won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 11:30L. Madle6713111114183J. Cernik65159916162
LSep 21 · 08:58L. Madle4377111172J. Cernik46111176113
WSep 21 · 08:30L. Madle331111113J. Cernik196490
LSep 14 · 11:00L. Madle31981131J. Cernik4111118113
WJun 2 · 08:59L. Madle4491113113J. Cernik381171191
LJun 2 · 07:00L. Madle26117531J. Cernik3741111113
WMay 18 · 07:30L. Madle44101111123J. Cernik331238101
WMay 7 · 06:00L. Madle371111153J. Cernik2575130
LMay 4 · 07:00L. Madle419911121J. Cernik4011114143
WDec 24 · 08:00L. Madle331111113J. Cernik218580
L. Madle10
WOct 1 · 12:30C. Havrda3.002690L. Madle1.361111113WOct 1 · 10:30L. Novotny1.8086110L. Madle1.911111133LSep 28 · 09:30L. Madle1.4311661142J. Martinek2.60711115113WSep 28 · 08:30L. Madle1.571111113J. Strnad2.256470WSep 28 · 07:00L. Madle1.4061111113M. Marjan2.75115851WSep 28 · 06:00J. Martinek1.91611661L. Madle1.8011911113LSep 24 · 09:30T. Kucera1.851411113L. Madle1.8512240LSep 24 · 08:30L. Madle1.4415780J. Strnad2.631711113WSep 24 · 07:00L. Madle1.531116113J. Pantak2.3821490WSep 24 · 06:00T. Kucera2.0011611742L. Madle1.73711511113
J. Cernik10
LOct 1 · 12:00J. Cernik2.005740L. Novotny1.731111113WOct 1 · 10:00J. Cernik1.361111123C. Havrda3.0078100LSep 30 · 13:00J. Cernik4.0088111182M. Vaclavik1.22111194113WSep 30 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.22111211862J. Cernik4.00614611113LSep 30 · 11:00L. Novotny1.80111411113J. Cernik1.911312751LSep 30 · 10:30J. Cernik2.25881131D. Mutl1.5711118113LSep 30 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.3611611113J. Cernik3.00911771WSep 30 · 08:00J. Cernik2.251151111113D. Mutl1.5731181392WSep 30 · 07:30M. Vrabec1.36111186112J. Cernik3.00591111133LSep 30 · 06:30J. Cernik1.8511561142J. Potensky1.85411115113
Upcoming Matches
L. Madle
Nothing scheduled
J. Cernik
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