TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jaroslav Strnad 1961 vs Cesta Havrda 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115119118––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:15 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeCesta Havrda to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1961 above · Cesta Havrda below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 55 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Cesta Havrda at 62.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1961 15–30 Cesta Havrda Jaroslav Strnad 1961 has won 15 of their 45 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:1562.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Havrda
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-30 in 45
Havrda
Wrong
gap of 15 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1029 vs Havrda 1056
Havrda
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 40% vs Havrda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 50% vs Havrda 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad +1 · Havrda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Havrda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Havrda form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 2.375 / Havrda 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Havrda)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13248932
Strnad2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog27% won 31 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back17% 13 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 47
Havrda1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 20 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it78% 14 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrnad3wins
AwayHavrda7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHavrda leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnadn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayHavrda70%7 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad0Havrda10n = 10Havrda took 10 of 10
S2Strnad7Havrda3n = 10Strnad took 7 of 10
S3Strnad4Havrda6n = 10Havrda took 6 of 10
S4Strnad4Havrda5n = 9Havrda took 5 of 9
S5Strnad2Havrda2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrnadHavrdaS − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match38.344.1−5.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadHavrdaBasisWin rate · lifetime136 / 330 vs 100 / 23741.2%42.2%136 / 330 vs 100 / 237Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HavrdaStrnad 2.38/Havrda 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Havrda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 13:12J. Strnad381111881C. Havrda4113611113
WSep 16 · 11:00J. Strnad40521111113C. Havrda3911114672
LAug 25 · 11:00J. Strnad51912121442C. Havrda5811101016113
WAug 24 · 12:00J. Strnad3631111113C. Havrda33118591
LAug 12 · 07:00J. Strnad2011540C. Havrda351311113
LJul 22 · 13:02J. Strnad357116111C. Havrda4411911133
WJul 22 · 11:30J. Strnad495111111113C. Havrda4611813772
LJul 21 · 06:00J. Strnad4741132362C. Havrda621181121113
LJun 30 · 10:00J. Strnad32681171C. Havrda4111118113
LJun 10 · 08:00J. Strnad35811971C. Havrda4211911113
J. Strnad10
WOct 6 · 10:30P. Potmesil2.1021271262J. Strnad1.6711101110113LOct 4 · 08:59J. Hyrsl1.221111113J. Strnad4.006880WOct 4 · 08:30J. Strnad2.001111113D. Cupec1.735950LOct 4 · 07:00J. Strnad2.755750M. Vrabec1.401111113LOct 4 · 06:00J. Hyrsl1.2811411113J. Strnad3.50711771WOct 3 · 09:02J. Strnad1.441111113P. Serak2.637890LOct 3 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.101111133J. Strnad1.6767110WOct 3 · 07:00L. Madle1.36116291J. Strnad3.0041111113WOct 3 · 06:30J. Strnad1.44111112113P. Serak2.63871441LSep 28 · 09:00M. Marjan1.401612113J. Strnad2.75141060
C. Havrda10
WOct 6 · 10:00C. Havrda1.50111011123V. Kubat2.508123101LOct 1 · 13:00L. Novotny1.5811914113C. Havrda2.257111231LOct 1 · 12:30C. Havrda3.002690L. Madle1.361111113WOct 1 · 11:00C. Havrda2.7511811113L. Novotny1.40711841LOct 1 · 10:00J. Cernik1.361111123C. Havrda3.0078100WSep 16 · 13:12J. Strnad2.501111881C. Havrda1.5013611113LSep 16 · 12:00L. Novotny1.531211113C. Havrda2.3810450LSep 16 · 11:00J. Strnad2.38521111113C. Havrda1.5311114672LSep 16 · 10:30C. Havrda2.639840J. Cernik1.441111113WSep 9 · 13:30P. Serak1.4611760C. Havrda2.371311113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.