TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jaroslav Strnad 1961 vs Milan Vrabec 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511711511––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:57 and never touched: 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeMilan Vrabec to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1961 above · Milan Vrabec below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 50 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Milan Vrabec at 69.5%
50 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1961 7–13 Milan Vrabec Jaroslav Strnad 1961 has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5769.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Vrabec
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-13 in 20
Vrabec
Correct
gap of 6 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1011 vs Vrabec 1183
Vrabec
Correct
both rated, 172 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 60% vs Vrabec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 30% vs Vrabec 50%
Vrabec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad -1 · Vrabec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Vrabec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrabec form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 2.75 / Vrabec 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Vrabec)-1.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13238606
Strnad2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog27% won 30 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back18% 13 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Vrabec1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite72% won 72 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it90% 52 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrnad3wins
AwayVrabec7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVrabec leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnad60%3 of 5
AwayVrabec100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad5Vrabec5n = 10split evenly
S2Strnad6Vrabec4n = 10Strnad took 6 of 10
S3Strnad3Vrabec7n = 10Vrabec took 7 of 10
S4Strnad3Vrabec6n = 9Vrabec took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrnadVrabecS − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.638.1−3.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadVrabecBasisWin rate · lifetime138 / 339 vs 180 / 35240.7%51.1%138 / 339 vs 180 / 352Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.536.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VrabecStrnad 2.75/Vrabec 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Vrabec · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vrabec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 07:00J. Strnad175750M. Vrabec331111113
LSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad29481161M. Vrabec3911116113
LAug 3 · 06:00J. Strnad35912681M. Vrabec43111011113
LJul 22 · 12:30J. Strnad3931111592M. Vrabec49118811113
WJul 19 · 10:30J. Strnad44111210113M. Vrabec324101261
LJun 27 · 08:59J. Strnad281110521M. Vrabec3951211113
LJun 27 · 08:30J. Strnad3911114762M. Vrabec49791111113
LJun 10 · 06:00J. Strnad34811691M. Vrabec4211911113
WMay 31 · 08:59J. Strnad3911611113M. Vrabec27411841
WMay 31 · 06:30J. Strnad4211119113M. Vrabec28651161
J. Strnad10
LOct 4 · 06:00J. Hyrsl1.2811411113J. Strnad3.50711771WOct 3 · 09:02J. Strnad1.441111113P. Serak2.637890LOct 3 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.101111133J. Strnad1.6767110WOct 3 · 07:00L. Madle1.36116291J. Strnad3.0041111113WOct 3 · 06:30J. Strnad1.44111112113P. Serak2.63871441LSep 28 · 09:00M. Marjan1.401612113J. Strnad2.75141060LSep 28 · 08:30L. Madle1.571111113J. Strnad2.256470LSep 28 · 07:30J. Strnad4.00114651J. Martinek1.2271111113LSep 28 · 06:30M. Marjan1.531111113J. Strnad2.387850LSep 24 · 08:59J. Strnad2.50119881J. Pantak1.5081111113
M. Vrabec10
LOct 4 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.533890D. Cupec2.381111113WSep 30 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.3611611113J. Cernik3.00911771WSep 30 · 08:30J. Potensky1.911110651M. Vrabec1.8041211113LSep 30 · 07:30M. Vrabec1.36111186112J. Cernik3.00591111133WSep 30 · 06:30D. Mutl2.3891170M. Vrabec1.531113113WSep 26 · 13:04M. Vrabec1.3511711123J. Cernik2.909115101LSep 26 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.8081111103M. Vrabec1.91112341LSep 26 · 11:30M. Vrabec2.502320M. Vaclavik1.501111113WSep 26 · 10:30J. Cernik2.759660M. Vrabec1.401111113LSep 19 · 09:28M. Syroha1.36118911113M. Vrabec3.0091111082
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