TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Marcel Marjan vs Jaroslav Strnad 1961 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 28Finished
Marcel Marjan
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
16141210116––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:58 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeMarcel Marjan to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcel Marjan above · Jaroslav Strnad 1961 below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 69 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Marcel Marjan at 57.9%
69 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Marjan 3–1 Jaroslav Strnad 1961 Jaroslav Strnad 1961 has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Marjan beat Strnad 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:58What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Marjan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Marjan
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marjan 1133 vs Strnad 985
Marjan
Correct
both rated, 148 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marjan 40% vs Strnad 20%
Marjan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marjan 30% vs Strnad 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marjan -2 · Strnad -4
Strnad
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Marjan) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strnad form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarjan 1.40 / Strnad 2.75
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Marjan)-8.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13210032
Marjan1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Strnad2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog27% won 29 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMarjan3wins
AwayStrnad1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderMarjan leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarjan66.7%2 of 3
AwayStrnadn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marjan3Strnad1n = 4Marjan took 3 of 4
S2Marjan3Strnad1n = 4Marjan took 3 of 4
S3Marjan4Strnad0n = 4Marjan took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMarjanStrnadM − SBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match37.030.2+6.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarjanStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime34 / 81 vs 141 / 34542%40.9%34 / 81 vs 141 / 345Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.535.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarjanMarjan 1.40/Strnad 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.9%
Marjan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Marjan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 28 · 09:00M. Marjan391612113J. Strnad30141060
WSep 28 · 06:30M. Marjan331111113J. Strnad207850
WSep 18 · 13:00M. Marjan3741111113J. Strnad29119361
LSep 18 · 11:00M. Marjan3911711822J. Strnad42511411113
M. Marjan10
LSep 28 · 08:00J. Martinek2.5016611113M. Marjan1.501411681LSep 28 · 07:00L. Madle1.4061111113M. Marjan2.75115851WSep 28 · 06:30M. Marjan1.531111113J. Strnad2.387850WSep 18 · 13:00M. Marjan1.7341111113J. Strnad2.00119361LSep 18 · 12:00J. Cernik1.7311119113M. Marjan2.00891191LSep 18 · 11:00J. Strnad2.63511411113M. Marjan1.4411711822WSep 18 · 10:30M. Marjan2.0212117113L. Novotny1.701071181LSep 18 · 09:12J. Cernik1.831113133M. Marjan1.83911110LSep 18 · 08:00M. Vaclavik1.67118811113M. Marjan2.1081111592LSep 18 · 07:00L. Novotny1.801111113M. Marjan1.915680
J. Strnad10
LSep 28 · 08:30L. Madle1.571111113J. Strnad2.256470LSep 28 · 07:30J. Strnad4.00114651J. Martinek1.2271111113LSep 28 · 06:30M. Marjan1.531111113J. Strnad2.387850LSep 24 · 08:59J. Strnad2.50119881J. Pantak1.5081111113WSep 24 · 08:30L. Madle1.4415780J. Strnad2.631711113LSep 24 · 07:30J. Strnad3.7507110T. Kucera1.251111133LSep 24 · 06:30J. Pantak1.5791111113J. Strnad2.25114841LSep 18 · 13:00M. Marjan1.7341111113J. Strnad2.00119361LSep 18 · 12:30J. Strnad2.206780L. Novotny1.611111113WSep 18 · 11:00J. Strnad2.63511411113M. Marjan1.4411711822
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