TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Potensky vs Milan Vrabec 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1141012611511––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:21 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Vrabec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Potensky above · Milan Vrabec below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 70 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Milan Vrabec at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jan Potensky 7–5 Milan Vrabec Milan Vrabec has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2154.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vrabec
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Potensky
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potensky 1183 vs Vrabec 1164
Potensky
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potensky 40% vs Vrabec 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potensky 40% vs Vrabec 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potensky +2 · Vrabec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vrabec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrabec form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotensky 1.909 / Vrabec 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vrabec)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13220636
Potensky1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As underdog43% won 45 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Vrabec1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite72% won 69 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it91% 30 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it91% 50 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotensky6wins
AwayVrabec4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPotensky leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotensky80%4 of 5
AwayVrabec60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potensky5Vrabec5n = 10split evenly
S2Potensky6Vrabec4n = 10Potensky took 6 of 10
S3Potensky5Vrabec5n = 10split evenly
S4Potensky4Vrabec6n = 10Vrabec took 6 of 10
S5Potensky3Vrabec1n = 4Potensky took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotenskyVrabecP − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.239.2+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotenskyVrabecBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 457 vs 177 / 34847.3%50.9%216 / 457 vs 177 / 348Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.136.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VrabecPotensky 1.91/Vrabec 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vrabec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vrabec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 16 · 07:30J. Potensky47711111082M. Vrabec50119712113
WJun 5 · 07:30J. Potensky4111811113M. Vrabec31611681
WMay 26 · 06:30J. Potensky42111163113M. Vrabec4689111172
LMay 12 · 06:00J. Potensky3731111121M. Vrabec4511713143
WApr 15 · 08:00J. Potensky3911611113M. Vrabec27311581
WMar 4 · 09:30J. Potensky44111111113M. Vrabec34135881
WFeb 26 · 10:00J. Potensky47911511113M. Vrabec3311611322
LFeb 26 · 07:00J. Potensky34971171M. Vrabec3911116113
WAug 15 · 07:00J. Potensky46111176113M. Vrabec4696111192
LJul 18 · 09:00J. Potensky35117981M. Vrabec4181111113
J. Potensky10
WSep 30 · 09:08J. Potensky1.5011116113D. Mutl2.40421191WSep 30 · 07:00J. Potensky1.611111113D. Mutl2.204150WSep 30 · 06:30J. Cernik1.8511561142J. Potensky1.85411115113LSep 28 · 02:30J. Grohsgott1.8011117113J. Potensky1.90581191LSep 28 · 01:00V. Stach2.101051110113J. Potensky1.6771161242LSep 27 · 23:30J. Potensky2.106490M. Vaclavik1.671111113LSep 27 · 22:00J. Potensky1.3091170J. Cernik3.401113113LAug 31 · 03:00J. Potensky1.6011391192A. Hejduk2.20411119113LAug 31 · 02:30J. Potensky2.00951141M. Vaclavik1.7311119113WAug 31 · 01:30D. Mutl1.91811771J. Potensky1.8011511113
M. Vrabec10
LSep 30 · 07:30M. Vrabec1.36111186112J. Cernik3.00591111133WSep 30 · 06:30D. Mutl2.3891170M. Vrabec1.531113113WSep 26 · 13:04M. Vrabec1.3511711123J. Cernik2.909115101LSep 26 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.8081111103M. Vrabec1.91112341LSep 26 · 11:30M. Vrabec2.502320M. Vaclavik1.501111113WSep 26 · 10:30J. Cernik2.759660M. Vrabec1.401111113LSep 19 · 09:28M. Syroha1.36118911113M. Vrabec3.0091111082LSep 19 · 08:00M. Syroha1.441111113M. Vrabec2.636520LSep 19 · 07:00J. Hyrsl1.44111149113M. Vrabec2.6384111162WSep 19 · 06:30M. Vrabec2.6391115113L. Novotny1.441171371
Upcoming Matches
J. Potensky
M. Vrabec
Nothing scheduled
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