TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Sebek vs Josef Vintr 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113711114811––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:48 and never touched: 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timeJosef Vintr to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Sebek above · Josef Vintr below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Josef Vintr at 69.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Sebek 0–4 Josef Vintr Ondrej Sebek has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:4869.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.3pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Vintr
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Vintr
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebek 1267 vs Vintr 1449
Vintr
Correct
both rated, 181 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebek 40% vs Vintr 60%
Vintr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebek 50% vs Vintr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebek -3 · Vintr +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Vintr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vintr form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebek 2.75 / Vintr 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Vintr)-2.3pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13245756
Sebek2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 15 days ago (Sep 20) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 17 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back17% 5 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Vintr1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 12 days ago (Sep 23) · back after a break
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite75% won 18 of 24
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSebek0wins
AwayVintr4wins
2 of 4 to a deciderVintr leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayVintr100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebek1Vintr3n = 4Vintr took 3 of 4
S2Sebek1Vintr3n = 4Vintr took 3 of 4
S3Sebek3Vintr1n = 4Sebek took 3 of 4
S4Sebek0Vintr3n = 3Vintr took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricSebekVintrS − VBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match41.247.2−6.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSebekVintrBasisWin rate · lifetime185 / 376 vs 44 / 8449.2%52.4%185 / 376 vs 44 / 84Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.440.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VintrSebek 2.75/Vintr 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Vintr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vintr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LApr 13 · 12:20O. Sebek31119110J. Vintr371311133
LDec 19 · 12:20O. Sebek387412151J. Vintr49111110173
LDec 5 · 11:00O. Sebek46111011592J. Vintr49812711113
LDec 5 · 08:50O. Sebek50151111582J. Vintr54176911113
O. Sebek10
LSep 20 · 09:25M. Nemec1.301013911113O. Sebek3.40121111872LSep 20 · 08:50O. Sebek2.3510119121M. Nemec1.5312611143LSep 20 · 07:20R. Zeman1.3311119113O. Sebek3.00491161WSep 20 · 06:50L. Pour1.40511951O. Sebek2.7511811113WSep 17 · 21:23O. Sebek1.73118511113M. Kolbusovsky2.0071111682WSep 17 · 20:20O. Sebek1.36111112113M. Kolbusovsky3.00691481WSep 17 · 19:20O. Sebek3.4011101112113M. Nemec1.3081221462LSep 17 · 18:20O. Sebek2.106770M. Dlask1.671111113WSep 10 · 13:19M. Kolbusovsky1.911211913122O. Sebek1.801461111143LSep 10 · 12:20O. Sebek2.006990L. Pour1.731111113
J. Vintr10
WOct 5 · 11:20M. Kolbusovsky3.00541181J. Vintr1.3611113113WSep 23 · 17:50A. Brandtl Jr1.459880J. Vintr2.601111113WSep 23 · 16:20J. Vintr2.008111411113M. Cesak1.7311716972WSep 23 · 15:20J. Vintr1.80913811113Z. Dusek1.91111111592LSep 23 · 14:20J. Vintr2.067611101A. Brandtl Jr1.5511119123LSep 21 · 13:30S. Matousch1.831112123J. Vintr1.83510100WSep 21 · 12:50J. Vintr2.2512155113T. Cerveny Jr1.5710131181LSep 21 · 11:20S. Matousch1.91612127113J. Vintr1.801110101172LSep 21 · 10:50M. Kolbusovsky3.00119115113J. Vintr1.3671181142LSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123
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