TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ondrej Sebek
Home
2.35
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10121169111214––
Michal Nemec
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:27 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Nemec to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Sebek above · Michal Nemec below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 85 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Michal Nemec at 62.9%
85 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Sebek 3–19 Michal Nemec Ondrej Sebek has won 3 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:27What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Nemec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-19 in 22
Nemec
Correct
gap of 16 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebek 1287 vs Nemec 1309
Nemec
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebek 80% vs Nemec 20%
Sebek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebek 50% vs Nemec 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebek -1 · Nemec -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Nemec) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nemec form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebek 2.35 / Nemec 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Nemec)+4.3pp
TT Cup · #13163054
Sebek2.35
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 18 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Nemec1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 79 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it88% 36 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it76% 51 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebek2wins
AwayNemec8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNemec leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebek50%2 of 4
AwayNemec100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebek4Nemec6n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10
S2Sebek2Nemec8n = 10Nemec took 8 of 10
S3Sebek5Nemec5n = 10split evenly
S4Sebek1Nemec6n = 7Nemec took 6 of 7
S5Sebek1Nemec2n = 3Nemec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSebekNemecS − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.340.7−7.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSebekNemecBasisWin rate · lifetime185 / 374 vs 363 / 76649.5%47.4%185 / 374 vs 363 / 766Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NemecSebek 2.35/Nemec 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Nemec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nemec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 19:20O. Sebek5511101112113M. Nemec4281221462
LSep 10 · 11:20O. Sebek152850M. Nemec331111113
LSep 3 · 15:50O. Sebek35871191M. Nemec4111118113
LAug 24 · 13:59O. Sebek3911511932M. Nemec49911711113
LAug 24 · 11:50O. Sebek336121051M. Nemec44111012113
LJun 9 · 21:28O. Sebek50111111892M. Nemec50138711113
LJun 9 · 20:20O. Sebek186660M. Nemec331111113
LJun 4 · 11:50O. Sebek24111661M. Nemec4291111113
WMay 26 · 13:50O. Sebek4211811123M. Nemec399119101
LMay 26 · 11:20O. Sebek2275100M. Nemec341111123
O. Sebek10
LSep 20 · 09:25M. Nemec1.301013911113O. Sebek3.40121111872LSep 20 · 07:20R. Zeman1.3311119113O. Sebek3.00491161WSep 20 · 06:50L. Pour1.40511951O. Sebek2.7511811113WSep 17 · 21:23O. Sebek1.73118511113M. Kolbusovsky2.0071111682WSep 17 · 20:20O. Sebek1.36111112113M. Kolbusovsky3.00691481WSep 17 · 19:20O. Sebek3.4011101112113M. Nemec1.3081221462LSep 17 · 18:20O. Sebek2.106770M. Dlask1.671111113WSep 10 · 13:19M. Kolbusovsky1.911211913122O. Sebek1.801461111143LSep 10 · 12:20O. Sebek2.006990L. Pour1.731111113LSep 10 · 11:20O. Sebek3.252850M. Nemec1.331111113
M. Nemec10
WSep 20 · 09:25M. Nemec1.301013911113O. Sebek3.40121111872LSep 20 · 07:50M. Nemec1.83511145132L. Pour1.831181211153LSep 20 · 06:20R. Zeman1.41131111113M. Nemec2.60155381WSep 18 · 17:25M. Nemec1.91911911153M. Kolbusovsky1.80118112132LSep 18 · 16:50R. Zeman1.361113133M. Nemec3.00811110LSep 18 · 15:50M. Nemec2.385790P. Cibik1.531111113WSep 18 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.259416101M. Nemec1.57111114123WSep 17 · 21:53M. Dlask1.6799110M. Nemec2.101111133LSep 17 · 19:20O. Sebek3.4011101112113M. Nemec1.3081221462WSep 10 · 11:20O. Sebek3.252850M. Nemec1.331111113
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