TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Josef Vintr vs Michal Cesak 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Josef Vintr
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111171416119117
Michal Cesak
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Cesak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJosef Vintr above · Michal Cesak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 105 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Michal Cesak at 54.0%
105 points played in total.
H2H Josef Vintr 3–2 Michal Cesak Michal Cesak has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cesak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vintr 1419 vs Cesak 1488
Cesak
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vintr 40% vs Cesak 60%
Cesak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vintr 30% vs Cesak 50%
Cesak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vintr +1 · Cesak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cesak)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVintr 2.00 / Cesak 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cesak)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13183897
Vintr2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 14 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back20% 3 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Cesak1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 47 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it75% 38 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVintr3wins
AwayCesak2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderVintr leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVintr66.7%2 of 3
AwayCesakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vintr3Cesak2n = 5Vintr took 3 of 5
S2Vintr3Cesak2n = 5Vintr took 3 of 5
S3Vintr5Cesak0n = 5Vintr took 5 of 5
S4Vintr1Cesak2n = 3Cesak took 2 of 3
S5Vintr1Cesak2n = 3Cesak took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricVintrCesakV − CBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match42.439.2+3.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVintrCesakBasisWin rate · lifetime42 / 82 vs 98 / 17151.2%57.3%42 / 82 vs 98 / 171Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.739.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CesakVintr 2.00/Cesak 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cesak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vintr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 26 · 16:20J. Vintr331111113M. Cesak186660
LJun 18 · 18:00J. Vintr51961115102M. Cesak551111813123
WJun 18 · 14:50J. Vintr531111118123M. Cesak49137811102
LJun 14 · 10:50J. Vintr42121117112M. Cesak511011611133
WMay 10 · 15:20J. Vintr331111113M. Cesak238870
J. Vintr10
WSep 23 · 17:50A. Jr1.459880J. Vintr2.601111113WSep 23 · 15:20J. Vintr1.80913811113Z. Dusek1.91111111592LSep 23 · 14:20J. Vintr2.067611101A. Jr1.5511119123LSep 21 · 13:30S. Matousch1.831112123J. Vintr1.83510100WSep 21 · 12:50J. Vintr2.2512155113T. Jr1.5710131181LSep 21 · 11:20S. Matousch1.91612127113J. Vintr1.801110101172LSep 21 · 10:50M. Kolbusovsky3.00119115113J. Vintr1.3671181142LSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123LSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143LSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100
M. Cesak10
LSep 23 · 17:19M. Cesak1.501198111Z. Dusek2.5021111133LSep 23 · 15:50A. Jr1.57114911113M. Cesak2.2591111782WSep 23 · 14:50M. Cesak1.531111113Z. Dusek2.383430WSep 9 · 17:20M. Cesak1.571411133S. Matousch2.25128110WSep 9 · 16:20S. Matousch2.7578100M. Cesak1.401111123LSep 9 · 15:50P. Cibik2.10115811113M. Cesak1.6781111662LSep 9 · 14:50M. Cesak2.00129781Z. Dusek1.73101111113WSep 2 · 17:30M. Nemec3.507870M. Cesak1.281111113LSep 2 · 16:50M. Cesak1.44711415102P. Cibik2.631151113123WSep 2 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky3.5041151192M. Cesak1.28117118113
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