TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Horak vs Milos Soukup 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
51110121210411––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:52 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMilos Soukup to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Horak above · Milos Soukup below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 75 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Milos Soukup at 56.2%
75 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Horak 2–3 Milos Soukup Ondrej Horak has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5256.2%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 7.5pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Soukup
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horak 1537 vs Soukup 1536
Horak
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horak 60% vs Soukup 100%
Soukup
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horak 40% vs Soukup 80%
Soukup
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Horak -1 · Soukup +8
Soukup
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Soukup) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Soukup form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorak 2.25 / Soukup 1.571
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Soukup)-7.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245501
Horak2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 23 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back21% 8 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Soukup1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 16 days ago (Sep 19) · back after a break
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 20 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeHorak2wins
AwaySoukup3wins
3 of 5 to a deciderSoukup leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorak33.3%1 of 3
AwaySoukupn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horak3Soukup2n = 5Horak took 3 of 5
S2Horak3Soukup2n = 5Horak took 3 of 5
S3Horak2Soukup3n = 5Soukup took 3 of 5
S4Horak0Soukup5n = 5Soukup took 5 of 5
S5Horak2Soukup1n = 3Horak took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricHorakSoukupH − SBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match39.444.2−4.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorakSoukupBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 190 vs 38 / 7949.5%48.1%94 / 190 vs 38 / 79Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SoukupHorak 2.25/Soukup 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Soukup · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Soukup won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 27 · 13:45O. Horak49111197113M. Soukup4579111172
WJun 9 · 13:45O. Horak528111111113M. Soukup4211661362
LMay 20 · 14:00O. Horak3711411472M. Soukup47611811113
LApr 1 · 17:09O. Horak33315781M. Soukup46111311113
LApr 1 · 14:00O. Horak26111771M. Soukup4181111113
O. Horak10
WOct 5 · 15:30F. Kubos2.38861181O. Horak1.5311118113WOct 5 · 15:00O. Horak2.2041111153V. Herrmann1.611188131LOct 1 · 16:59V. Herrmann1.801111113O. Horak1.917830WOct 1 · 15:30F. Kubos2.008911111O. Horak1.7311117133WOct 1 · 15:00O. Horak1.731111811113Z. Kuksa2.0013211382WOct 1 · 14:00O. Horak2.25411812113V. Herrmann1.57119111062LSep 21 · 16:18O. Horak3.0071060R. Merkl1.361112113LSep 21 · 15:15R. Merkl1.531111123O. Horak2.3897100LSep 21 · 14:45O. Horak1.671411981V. Lopata2.1016511113LSep 21 · 13:45O. Horak1.91112861P. Hala1.8071111113
M. Soukup10
WOct 5 · 16:00M. Soukup2.1011118113V. Herrmann1.67721171WOct 5 · 14:30F. Kubos2.008111591M. Soukup1.7311917113WSep 19 · 08:14M. Soukup1.3611811113J. Botka3.00711951WSep 19 · 07:15J. Botka2.3887111152M. Soukup1.53111193113WSep 19 · 06:45M. Soukup1.801111113M. Taranko1.916880WSep 19 · 05:45M. Soukup2.10121211113Z. Kuksa1.671410681WSep 15 · 17:04M. Soukup1.671111113L. Tuma2.104960WSep 15 · 16:00M. Soukup1.67111011113T. Stejskal2.10712791WSep 15 · 14:30P. Abraham2.2012460M. Soukup1.611411113WSep 15 · 14:00L. Tuma1.9141141122M. Soukup1.80115119113
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