TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Filip Kubos vs Ondrej Horak 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8119111171113––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:20 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Horak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Kubos above · Ondrej Horak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 81 set 4, 11-13 · our read held Ondrej Horak at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2054.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Horak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Kubos 1481 vs Horak 1529
Horak
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubos 20% vs Horak 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubos 30% vs Horak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubos -3 · Horak +1
Kubos
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Horak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horak form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubos 2.00 / Horak 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Horak)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223793
Kubos2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 72 of 170
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 56
Horak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 18 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubosHorakBasisWin rate · lifetime351 / 705 vs 92 / 18749.8%49.2%351 / 705 vs 92 / 187Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HorakKubos 2.00/Horak 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Horak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Horak won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
F. Kubos10
LOct 1 · 14:30F. Kubos2.25116261V. Herrmann1.5781111113LOct 1 · 13:30F. Kubos2.3811116782Z. Kuksa1.53961111113LSep 28 · 20:43F. Kubos1.57116111172T. Bertho2.25411134113WSep 28 · 19:45T. Bertho2.107890F. Kubos1.671111113LSep 28 · 18:45S. Kalensky1.919111111113F. Kubos1.8011813882LSep 28 · 17:15J. Snr1.91511511123F. Kubos1.80115116102LSep 27 · 21:04R. Merkl1.5711119113F. Kubos2.25651151WSep 27 · 19:30F. Kubos2.2512611123A. Pavlik1.5710118101LSep 27 · 18:30F. Kubos2.75741171L. Kolman1.4011115113WSep 27 · 17:30F. Kubos3.25711116113R. Merkl1.3311681182
O. Horak10
WOct 1 · 15:00O. Horak1.731111811113Z. Kuksa2.0013211382WOct 1 · 14:00O. Horak2.25411812113V. Herrmann1.57119111062LSep 21 · 16:18O. Horak3.0071060R. Merkl1.361112113LSep 21 · 15:15R. Merkl1.531111123O. Horak2.3897100LSep 21 · 14:45O. Horak1.671411981V. Lopata2.1016511113LSep 21 · 13:45O. Horak1.91112861P. Hala1.8071111113WSep 16 · 16:14O. Horak1.731111113P. Provaznik2.008860LSep 16 · 15:45O. Horak2.00441181J. Juppa1.7311115113WSep 16 · 14:15T. Bertho2.202980O. Horak1.611111113LSep 16 · 13:45P. Provaznik2.00116134123O. Horak1.738111111102
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