TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Horak vs Zdenek Kuksa 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113112811113118
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Horak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Horak above · Zdenek Kuksa below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 89 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Ondrej Horak at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Horak 3–2 Zdenek Kuksa Zdenek Kuksa has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5954.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Horak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horak 1529 vs Kuksa 1580
Kuksa
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horak 20% vs Kuksa 80%
Kuksa
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horak 40% vs Kuksa 70%
Kuksa
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Horak +1 · Kuksa +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Horak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuksa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorak 1.727 / Kuksa 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Horak)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13224028
Horak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 18 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Kuksa2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 50 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeHorak3wins
AwayKuksa2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderHorak leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKuksa33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horak2Kuksa3n = 5Kuksa took 3 of 5
S2Horak5Kuksa0n = 5Horak took 5 of 5
S3Horak2Kuksa2n = 4split evenly
S4Horak2Kuksa2n = 4split evenly
S5Horak1Kuksa2n = 3Kuksa took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricHorakKuksaH − KBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match47.245.2+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorakKuksaBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 187 vs 261 / 50849.2%51.4%92 / 187 vs 261 / 508Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.940.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HorakHorak 1.73/Kuksa 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Horak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Horak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 27 · 16:54O. Horak45121111113Z. Kuksa35149931
LAug 27 · 14:45O. Horak49111191262Z. Kuksa521371110113
LNov 7 · 17:54O. Horak49121171092Z. Kuksa531091112113
WNov 7 · 16:00O. Horak46611117113Z. Kuksa4111941162
O. Horak10
WOct 1 · 15:30F. Kubos2.008911111O. Horak1.7311117133WOct 1 · 14:00O. Horak2.25411812113V. Herrmann1.57119111062LSep 21 · 16:18O. Horak3.0071060R. Merkl1.361112113LSep 21 · 15:15R. Merkl1.531111123O. Horak2.3897100LSep 21 · 14:45O. Horak1.671411981V. Lopata2.1016511113LSep 21 · 13:45O. Horak1.91112861P. Hala1.8071111113WSep 16 · 16:14O. Horak1.731111113P. Provaznik2.008860LSep 16 · 15:45O. Horak2.00441181J. Juppa1.7311115113WSep 16 · 14:15T. Bertho2.202980O. Horak1.611111113LSep 16 · 13:45P. Provaznik2.00116134123O. Horak1.738111111102
Z. Kuksa10
LOct 1 · 16:00V. Herrmann2.2011811113Z. Kuksa1.61911281WOct 1 · 13:30F. Kubos2.3811116782Z. Kuksa1.53961111113WSep 28 · 08:18Z. Kuksa2.20581111113P. Orlowski1.6111115582LSep 28 · 07:15P. Orlowski1.916111011113Z. Kuksa1.8011912892WSep 28 · 06:45Z. Kuksa1.61111168113R. Merkl2.2095111142WSep 28 · 05:45Z. Kuksa1.6111811113T. Kanka2.20611761LSep 26 · 08:44Z. Kuksa1.50611111152T. Kanka2.50115135113WSep 26 · 07:45Z. Kuksa1.731111113R. Merkl2.008890WSep 26 · 06:15T. Kanka2.38711513102Z. Kuksa1.531171111123WSep 26 · 05:45M. Taranko1.67571181Z. Kuksa2.1011119113
Upcoming Matches
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Z. Kuksa
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