Ondrej Horak vs Vit Herrmann 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 1Finished

Ondrej Horak

Home

2.25

At publish

Lost last 4

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 4

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

4111198111210116

Vit Herrmann

Away

1.57

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:56 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%

Graded at full time

Vit Herrmann to win

58.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingOndrej Horak above · Vit Herrmann below

Set 1 · 4-11

Set 2 · 11-9

Set 3 · 8-11

Set 4 · 12-10

Set 5 · 11-6

Point 93 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Vit Herrmann at 58.9%

93 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 13:56

58.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571

short by 4.8pp

63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Herrmann

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Horak 1517 vs Herrmann 1556

Herrmann

Wrong

both rated, 39 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Horak 20% vs Herrmann 40%

Herrmann

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Horak 40% vs Herrmann 50%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Horak -4 · Herrmann -1

Horak

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Herrmann) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Herrmann form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsHorak 2.25 / Herrmann 1.571

Signal prob.41% / 59%

Edge (Herrmann)-4.8pp (anti-value)

Setka Cup · #13223650

Horak2.25

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 10 days ago (Sep 21) · back after a break

Lost last 4

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog37% won 22 of 59

Down 0–1, comes back19% 7 of 37

Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26

Herrmann1.57

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 26)

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite51% won 38 of 75

Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17

Up 1–0, closes it74% 28 of 38

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricHorakHerrmannBasisWin rate · lifetime93 / 194 vs 216 / 44147.9%49%93 / 194 vs 216 / 441Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.3per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Herrmann

Horak 2.25/Herrmann 1.57

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

58.9%

Herrmann · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Horak won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

O. Horak10