TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Milos Soukup vs Vit Herrmann 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117112811117––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:57 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeVit Herrmann to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilos Soukup above · Vit Herrmann below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 68 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Vit Herrmann at 55.8%
68 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:5755.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Herrmann
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Soukup 1559 vs Herrmann 1569
Herrmann
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Soukup 100% vs Herrmann 40%
Soukup
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Soukup 100% vs Herrmann 50%
Soukup
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Soukup +10 · Herrmann -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Herrmann) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Herrmann form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSoukup 2.10 / Herrmann 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Herrmann)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245473
Soukup2.10
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 10
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog46% won 10 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back33% 3 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back20% 1 of 5
Herrmann1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 39 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it76% 28 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricSoukupHerrmannBasisWin rate · lifetime40 / 81 vs 218 / 44349.4%49.2%40 / 81 vs 218 / 443Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HerrmannSoukup 2.10/Herrmann 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Herrmann · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Soukup won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Soukup10
WOct 5 · 14:30F. Kubos2.008111591M. Soukup1.7311917113WOct 5 · 14:00O. Horak2.255101241M. Soukup1.57111210113WSep 19 · 08:14M. Soukup1.3611811113J. Botka3.00711951WSep 19 · 07:15J. Botka2.3887111152M. Soukup1.53111193113WSep 19 · 06:45M. Soukup1.801111113M. Taranko1.916880WSep 19 · 05:45M. Soukup2.10121211113Z. Kuksa1.671410681WSep 15 · 17:04M. Soukup1.671111113L. Tuma2.104960WSep 15 · 16:00M. Soukup1.67111011113T. Stejskal2.10712791WSep 15 · 14:30P. Abraham2.2012460M. Soukup1.611411113WSep 15 · 14:00L. Tuma1.9141141122M. Soukup1.80115119113
V. Herrmann10
LOct 5 · 16:29V. Herrmann1.578141111102F. Kubos2.25111674123LOct 5 · 15:00O. Horak2.2041111153V. Herrmann1.611188131LOct 5 · 13:30F. Kubos2.5091111113V. Herrmann1.50119951LOct 4 · 12:29V. Herrmann2.008760L. Provaznik1.731111113WOct 4 · 11:30L. Provaznik1.3011241152V. Herrmann3.40911119113WOct 4 · 11:00V. Herrmann2.631111113L. Kolman1.448350WOct 4 · 10:00V. Herrmann2.6311114113M. Hajek1.44971161WOct 3 · 12:30V. Herrmann2.10111129113R. Merkl1.6764111152LOct 3 · 12:00M. Svitac1.531312113V. Herrmann2.38111080LOct 3 · 11:00R. Merkl1.8011118113V. Herrmann1.91661181
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