TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ludek Stoces vs Adam Pavlik 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116711118811711
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:57 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLudek Stoces to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLudek Stoces above · Adam Pavlik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 91 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Ludek Stoces at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Stoces 0–3 Adam Pavlik Ludek Stoces has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:5754.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pavlik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Pavlik
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stoces 1621 vs Pavlik 1551
Stoces
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stoces 100% vs Pavlik 20%
Stoces
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stoces 100% vs Pavlik 50%
Stoces
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stoces +10 · Pavlik -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stoces) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavlik form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStoces 1.909 / Pavlik 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stoces)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13224093
Stoces1.91
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 10
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 16 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Pavlik1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 32 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeStoces0wins
AwayPavlik3wins
2 of 3 to a deciderPavlik leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStoces0%0 of 3
AwayPavlikn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stoces3Pavlik0n = 3Stoces took 3 of 3
S2Stoces0Pavlik3n = 3Pavlik took 3 of 3
S3Stoces0Pavlik3n = 3Pavlik took 3 of 3
S4Stoces2Pavlik1n = 3Stoces took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricStocesPavlikS − PBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match38.045.3−7.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStocesPavlikBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 214 vs 163 / 32145.3%50.8%97 / 214 vs 163 / 321Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StocesStoces 1.91/Pavlik 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stoces · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pavlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJun 7 · 07:15L. Stoces22114431A. Pavlik4181111113
LMar 22 · 06:45L. Stoces4611961192A. Pavlik49811118113
LMar 4 · 21:00L. Stoces4611791182A. Pavlik46611117113
L. Stoces10
WOct 1 · 18:15L. Stoces2.201112123M. Hajek1.61310100WOct 1 · 17:15L. Stoces1.6711118113J. Jnr2.10891191WSep 26 · 13:09L. Stoces1.751111123V. Herrmann1.9598100WSep 26 · 12:00L. Stoces1.5711812113T. Bertho2.256111071WSep 26 · 10:30T. Hanke2.2541270L. Stoces1.571114113WSep 26 · 10:00V. Herrmann2.00111261062L. Stoces1.737101112113WSep 21 · 20:53V. Herrmann1.837690L. Stoces1.831111113WSep 21 · 19:15S. Kalensky1.83711119102L. Stoces1.83118911123WSep 21 · 18:45L. Stoces1.91121111113V. Herrmann1.80146891WSep 21 · 17:45L. Stoces1.2811111010113F. Kubos3.5095121272
A. Pavlik10
WOct 1 · 18:45A. Pavlik2.0011511113J. Jnr1.73611751LOct 1 · 17:45A. Pavlik2.5010111051M. Hajek1.5012812113LSep 27 · 20:34L. Kolman1.6711141113A. Pavlik2.107121151LSep 27 · 19:30F. Kubos2.2512611123A. Pavlik1.5710118101LSep 27 · 19:00A. Pavlik1.8014991392R. Merkl1.9112111111113WSep 27 · 18:00A. Pavlik2.1011118113L. Kolman1.67491171WSep 25 · 16:45L. Kolman1.57119641A. Pavlik2.2591111113WSep 25 · 15:15T. Kanka1.73111011982A. Pavlik2.00612711113LSep 25 · 14:45A. Pavlik2.10411791L. Kolman1.6711911113WSep 25 · 13:45A. Pavlik2.1011115113P. Provaznik1.67981141
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