TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Adam Pavlik vs Miroslav Hajek 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10121181012511––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:40 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Hajek to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Pavlik above · Miroslav Hajek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 79 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Miroslav Hajek at 65.7%
79 points played in total.
H2H Adam Pavlik 4–6 Miroslav Hajek Adam Pavlik has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:4065.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 1.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hajek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Hajek
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavlik 1561 vs Hajek 1607
Hajek
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavlik 40% vs Hajek 20%
Pavlik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavlik 50% vs Hajek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavlik -3 · Hajek -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Hajek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hajek form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavlik 2.50 / Hajek 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Hajek)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13224090
Pavlik2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 27)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 38 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 22
Hajek1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 29)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 70 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it78% 55 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavlik4wins
AwayHajek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHajek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavlik66.7%2 of 3
AwayHajek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavlik3Hajek7n = 10Hajek took 7 of 10
S2Pavlik4Hajek6n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10
S3Pavlik7Hajek2n = 9Pavlik took 7 of 9
S4Pavlik4Hajek5n = 9Hajek took 5 of 9
S5Pavlik2Hajek3n = 5Hajek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavlikHajekP − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.641.8+0.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavlikHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 320 vs 357 / 67550.9%52.9%163 / 320 vs 357 / 675Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HajekPavlik 2.50/Hajek 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Hajek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hajek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 28 · 17:45A. Pavlik46851111113M. Hajek3811116732
WAug 10 · 20:48A. Pavlik4071111113M. Hajek28115661
LAug 10 · 19:45A. Pavlik3841151172M. Hajek45114118113
LOct 31 · 16:30A. Pavlik49911111172M. Hajek50117813113
WOct 14 · 14:45A. Pavlik3511211113M. Hajek28611561
LJul 30 · 14:15A. Pavlik42111010111M. Hajek4471212133
LJul 22 · 14:00A. Pavlik45511111262M. Hajek52119714113
LJul 8 · 20:30A. Pavlik37591581M. Hajek46111113113
WJul 8 · 19:15A. Pavlik51119119113M. Hajek4571181182
A. Pavlik10
LSep 27 · 20:34L. Kolman1.6711141113A. Pavlik2.107121151LSep 27 · 19:30F. Kubos2.2512611123A. Pavlik1.5710118101LSep 27 · 19:00A. Pavlik1.8014991392R. Merkl1.9112111111113WSep 27 · 18:00A. Pavlik2.1011118113L. Kolman1.67491171WSep 25 · 16:45L. Kolman1.57119641A. Pavlik2.2591111113WSep 25 · 15:15T. Kanka1.73111011982A. Pavlik2.00612711113LSep 25 · 14:45A. Pavlik2.10411791L. Kolman1.6711911113WSep 25 · 13:45A. Pavlik2.1011115113P. Provaznik1.67981141WSep 19 · 20:33T. Hucko1.447950A. Pavlik2.631111113LSep 19 · 19:30A. Pavlik2.206990T. Hucko1.611111113
M. Hajek10
LOct 1 · 18:15L. Stoces2.201112123M. Hajek1.61310100LSep 29 · 20:43M. Hajek2.505570D. Brichacek1.501111113LSep 29 · 19:45D. Brichacek1.671111113M. Hajek2.108210LSep 29 · 18:45D. Marasek1.73121111113M. Hajek2.001071311LSep 29 · 17:15M. Vana1.671115133M. Hajek2.10913110WSep 28 · 12:58M. Hajek1.611113133L. Provaznik2.20911110WSep 28 · 12:00M. Hajek1.3311911113J. Juppa3.25911681LSep 28 · 10:30T. Hybl2.2511611113M. Hajek1.57611371WSep 28 · 10:00L. Provaznik2.25811691M. Hajek1.5711911113LSep 27 · 08:59L. Provaznik2.20127118113M. Hajek1.61101171172
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