TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ludek Stoces vs Miroslav Hajek 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11312101210––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:10 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Hajek to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLudek Stoces above · Miroslav Hajek below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 58 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Miroslav Hajek at 58.1%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Stoces 19–17 Miroslav Hajek Miroslav Hajek has won 17 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:1058.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hajek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-17 in 36
Stoces
Correct
gap of 2 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stoces 1607 vs Hajek 1617
Hajek
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stoces 100% vs Hajek 20%
Stoces
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stoces 90% vs Hajek 40%
Stoces
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stoces +9 · Hajek +1
Stoces
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Hajek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hajek form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStoces 2.20 / Hajek 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Hajek)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223659
Stoces2.20
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 9
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 16 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Hajek1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 70 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it78% 55 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStoces4wins
AwayHajek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHajek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStoces75%3 of 4
AwayHajek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stoces4Hajek6n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10
S2Stoces4Hajek6n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10
S3Stoces4Hajek6n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10
S4Stoces2Hajek3n = 5Hajek took 3 of 5
S5Stoces2Hajek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricStocesHajekS − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.438.3−6.9per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStocesHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime96 / 213 vs 354 / 67245.1%52.7%96 / 213 vs 354 / 672Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HajekStoces 2.20/Hajek 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Hajek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stoces won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 18:00L. Stoces3511211113M. Hajek361110781
LFeb 3 · 22:10L. Stoces3711711172M. Hajek51911911113
WFeb 3 · 19:00L. Stoces501211106113M. Hajek47109121152
LJan 21 · 20:45L. Stoces44131151142M. Hajek50159114113
LDec 29 · 06:45L. Stoces166370M. Hajek331111113
LDec 23 · 08:00L. Stoces1951040M. Hajek341112113
LDec 20 · 19:45L. Stoces174580M. Hajek331111113
WDec 14 · 13:00L. Stoces47117135113M. Hajek46611111172
LDec 3 · 22:00L. Stoces166820M. Hajek331111113
WDec 3 · 21:00L. Stoces331111113M. Hajek209470
L. Stoces10
WOct 1 · 17:15L. Stoces1.6711118113J. Jnr2.10891191WSep 26 · 13:09L. Stoces1.751111123V. Herrmann1.9598100WSep 26 · 12:00L. Stoces1.5711812113T. Bertho2.256111071WSep 26 · 10:30T. Hanke2.2541270L. Stoces1.571114113WSep 26 · 10:00V. Herrmann2.00111261062L. Stoces1.737101112113WSep 21 · 20:53V. Herrmann1.837690L. Stoces1.831111113WSep 21 · 19:15S. Kalensky1.83711119102L. Stoces1.83118911123WSep 21 · 18:45L. Stoces1.91121111113V. Herrmann1.80146891WSep 21 · 17:45L. Stoces1.2811111010113F. Kubos3.5095121272LSep 19 · 16:24V. Lopata1.831211133L. Stoces1.83107110
M. Hajek10
WOct 1 · 17:45A. Pavlik2.5010111051M. Hajek1.5012812113LSep 29 · 20:43M. Hajek2.505570D. Brichacek1.501111113LSep 29 · 19:45D. Brichacek1.671111113M. Hajek2.108210LSep 29 · 18:45D. Marasek1.73121111113M. Hajek2.001071311LSep 29 · 17:15M. Vana1.671115133M. Hajek2.10913110WSep 28 · 12:58M. Hajek1.611113133L. Provaznik2.20911110WSep 28 · 12:00M. Hajek1.3311911113J. Juppa3.25911681LSep 28 · 10:30T. Hybl2.2511611113M. Hajek1.57611371WSep 28 · 10:00L. Provaznik2.25811691M. Hajek1.5711911113LSep 27 · 08:59L. Provaznik2.20127118113M. Hajek1.61101171172
Upcoming Matches
L. Stoces
Nothing scheduled
M. Hajek
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