TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ludek Stoces vs Jan Simecek Jnr 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118119811119––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:05 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeLudek Stoces to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLudek Stoces above · Jan Simecek Jnr below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Ludek Stoces at 57.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Stoces 5–2 Jan Simecek Jnr Jan Simecek Jnr has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:0557.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stoces
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Stoces
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stoces 1594 vs Jnr 1612
Jnr
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stoces 100% vs Jnr 40%
Stoces
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stoces 80% vs Jnr 50%
Stoces
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stoces +8 · Jnr -2
Stoces
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Stoces) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stoces form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStoces 1.666 / Jnr 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Stoces)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223834
Stoces1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 26)
Won last 8
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 21 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it65% 13 of 20
Jnr2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Sep 23) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 29 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeStoces5wins
AwayJnr2wins
4 of 7 to a deciderStoces leads 5–2, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStoces75%3 of 4
AwayJnr33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stoces4Jnr3n = 7Stoces took 4 of 7
S2Stoces2Jnr5n = 7Jnr took 5 of 7
S3Stoces6Jnr1n = 7Stoces took 6 of 7
S4Stoces4Jnr2n = 6Stoces took 4 of 6
S5Stoces2Jnr2n = 4split evenly
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricStocesJnrS − JBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match45.543.2+2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStocesJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 216 vs 222 / 42144.9%52.7%97 / 216 vs 222 / 421Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StocesStoces 1.67/Jnr 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Stoces · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stoces won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 19 · 08:39L. Stoces4211119113J. Jnr33761191
WSep 19 · 06:30L. Stoces4414811113J. Jnr361211851
LJul 13 · 20:28L. Stoces4576111382J. Jnr501111611113
LJul 13 · 19:15L. Stoces501141112122J. Jnr55911714143
WMay 23 · 16:56L. Stoces46671111113J. Jnr4111116852
WMay 23 · 14:15L. Stoces46712115113J. Jnr44111071152
L. Stoces10
WOct 1 · 18:15L. Stoces2.201112123M. Hajek1.61310100WSep 26 · 13:09L. Stoces1.751111123V. Herrmann1.9598100WSep 26 · 12:00L. Stoces1.5711812113T. Bertho2.256111071WSep 26 · 10:30T. Hanke2.2541270L. Stoces1.571114113WSep 26 · 10:00V. Herrmann2.00111261062L. Stoces1.737101112113WSep 21 · 20:53V. Herrmann1.837690L. Stoces1.831111113WSep 21 · 19:15S. Kalensky1.83711119102L. Stoces1.83118911123WSep 21 · 18:45L. Stoces1.91121111113V. Herrmann1.80146891WSep 21 · 17:45L. Stoces1.2811111010113F. Kubos3.5095121272LSep 19 · 16:24V. Lopata1.831211133L. Stoces1.83107110
J. Jnr10
LSep 23 · 20:33J. Jnr1.739111111102P. Orlowski2.00119139123LSep 23 · 19:15P. Orlowski1.8011118113J. Jnr1.91971141WSep 23 · 18:45J. Jnr1.531111113P. Hala2.386950WSep 23 · 17:45J. Jnr2.00111197123D. Brichacek1.73861111102LSep 19 · 08:39J. Jnr2.00761191L. Stoces1.7311119113LSep 19 · 08:00J. Jnr1.91111110432D. Brichacek1.80881211113LSep 19 · 06:30L. Stoces1.7314811113J. Jnr2.001211851WSep 19 · 06:00P. Orlowski1.911091214152J. Jnr1.8012111012173WSep 14 · 20:39J. Jnr1.361111143S. Kalensky3.0099120WSep 14 · 20:00J. Jnr1.53111113143P. Rucky2.3813411121
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