TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleg Varlamov vs Yaroslav Makovka 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911511114115411
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:57 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeOleg Varlamov to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleg Varlamov above · Yaroslav Makovka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 82 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Oleg Varlamov at 60.9%
82 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Varlamov 20–10 Yaroslav Makovka Yaroslav Makovka has won 10 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:57What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Varlamov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-10 in 30
Varlamov
Wrong
gap of 10 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varlamov 1519 vs Makovka 1517
Varlamov
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varlamov 0% vs Makovka 40%
Makovka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varlamov 20% vs Makovka 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Varlamov -7 · Makovka -2
Varlamov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Varlamov) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varlamov form (0%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarlamov 1.57 / Makovka 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Varlamov)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13201853
Varlamov1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 43 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it76% 37 of 49
Makovka2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 46 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarlamov7wins
AwayMakovka3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderVarlamov leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarlamov77.8%7 of 9
AwayMakovkan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varlamov9Makovka1n = 10Varlamov took 9 of 10
S2Varlamov5Makovka5n = 10split evenly
S3Varlamov4Makovka6n = 10Makovka took 6 of 10
S4Varlamov4Makovka5n = 9Makovka took 5 of 9
S5Varlamov4Makovka2n = 6Varlamov took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVarlamovMakovkaV − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match41.741.4+0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarlamovMakovkaBasisWin rate · lifetime243 / 522 vs 153 / 38246.6%40.1%243 / 522 vs 153 / 382Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarlamovVarlamov 1.57/Makovka 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Varlamov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Makovka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 14:10O. Varlamov4011115133Y. Makovka367711111
WJul 25 · 11:40O. Varlamov44118311113Y. Makovka4261111772
LJul 12 · 08:00O. Varlamov30117661Y. Makovka3851111113
WJul 11 · 12:40O. Varlamov531211118113Y. Makovka51109131182
WJul 5 · 08:00O. Varlamov46117213133Y. Makovka506111111112
WApr 19 · 11:00O. Varlamov331111113Y. Makovka174940
LApr 18 · 11:40O. Varlamov4311711772Y. Makovka49811811113
WMar 7 · 16:40O. Varlamov46116117113Y. Makovka4891191182
WMar 1 · 08:30O. Varlamov4211119113Y. Makovka34791171
LFeb 1 · 12:30O. Varlamov4051111582Y. Makovka49118811113
O. Varlamov10
LSep 27 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.3011119113O. Varlamov3.40951131LSep 27 · 06:00O. Blashkun1.73126117123O. Varlamov2.001011711102LSep 27 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko1.501111153O. Varlamov2.5057130LSep 13 · 11:00O. Varlamov3.0010430A. Droshchynskyi1.361211113LSep 13 · 09:00Y. Bondarenko1.441011711153O. Varlamov2.63128118142LSep 13 · 08:00O. Varlamov1.8068111182Y. Holoborodko1.91111186113LSep 13 · 07:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.61881612133O. Varlamov2.2011111410112WSep 13 · 05:30O. Varlamov1.91921112113A. Zozulia1.80111171062WSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193LSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113
Y. Makovka10
LSep 27 · 08:30Y. Bondarenko1.331111113Y. Makovka3.258770LSep 27 · 06:30O. Zhyrnov1.441111113Y. Makovka2.632760WSep 27 · 04:30O. Blashkun1.6711114972Y. Makovka2.10991111113LSep 26 · 17:40Y. Makovka2.75117111172Y. Holoborodko1.40131199113WSep 26 · 15:40V. Ishchuk1.535690Y. Makovka2.381111113LSep 26 · 13:40A. Droshchynskyi1.201111123Y. Makovka4.3374100LSep 26 · 12:40Y. Makovka2.00115791O. Blashkun1.7391111113WSep 26 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.44791161Y. Makovka2.6311117113LSep 20 · 11:30M. Tiutiunnyk1.441131114113Y. Makovka2.6381121682LSep 20 · 10:00Y. Makovka2.63311100Y. Holoborodko1.441113123
Upcoming Matches
O. Varlamov
Y. Makovka
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