TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Blashkun vs Oleg Varlamov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12106111177111210
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Blashkun to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Blashkun above · Oleg Varlamov below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 97 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Oleksandr Blashkun at 54.1%
97 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Blashkun 8–8 Oleg Varlamov Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:48What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Blashkun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Blashkun 1611 vs Varlamov 1533
Blashkun
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Blashkun 60% vs Varlamov 0%
Blashkun
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Blashkun 40% vs Varlamov 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Blashkun -1 · Varlamov -5
Varlamov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Blashkun) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varlamov form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBlashkun 1.73 / Varlamov 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Blashkun)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13203285
Blashkun1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 29 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it67% 20 of 30
Varlamov2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 56 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back32% 21 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBlashkun5wins
AwayVarlamov5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBlashkun80%4 of 5
AwayVarlamov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Blashkun5Varlamov5n = 10split evenly
S2Blashkun4Varlamov6n = 10Varlamov took 6 of 10
S3Blashkun6Varlamov4n = 10Blashkun took 6 of 10
S4Blashkun3Varlamov4n = 7Varlamov took 4 of 7
S5Blashkun3Varlamov2n = 5Blashkun took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBlashkunVarlamovB − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.339.5−0.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBlashkunVarlamovBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 199 vs 243 / 52147.7%46.6%95 / 199 vs 243 / 521Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BlashkunBlashkun 1.73/Varlamov 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Blashkun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Blashkun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 06:00O. Blashkun48126117123O. Varlamov491011711102
LAug 29 · 11:40O. Blashkun4068111142O. Varlamov42111163113
WAug 15 · 14:10O. Blashkun44115116113O. Varlamov4261171172
WAug 8 · 12:40O. Blashkun331111113O. Varlamov151680
WJul 23 · 15:10O. Blashkun331111113O. Varlamov198560
LJul 22 · 17:40O. Blashkun4815161071O. Varlamov54171412113
LJul 5 · 09:00O. Blashkun142570O. Varlamov331111113
WJun 21 · 09:30O. Blashkun51515911113O. Varlamov46111311472
LMay 1 · 14:10O. Blashkun47681112102O. Varlamov531111910123
LApr 29 · 17:40O. Blashkun351159101O. Varlamov4281111123
O. Blashkun10
LSep 27 · 04:30O. Blashkun1.6711114972Y. Makovka2.10991111113WSep 26 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.6111168742O. Blashkun2.204141111113WSep 26 · 14:40V. Ishchuk2.50117871O. Blashkun1.507111193WSep 26 · 12:40Y. Makovka2.00115791O. Blashkun1.7391111113LSep 26 · 10:40A. Droshchynskyi1.4411115143O. Blashkun2.639711121LSep 24 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko2.2081113113O. Blashkun1.611191191LSep 24 · 16:10O. Blashkun1.9110730A. Zozulia1.801211113LSep 24 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.611121011113O. Blashkun2.2041112572LSep 24 · 12:10V. Maksuta1.33791111113O. Blashkun3.2511117822WSep 24 · 11:10V. Merzlikin2.50661111O. Blashkun1.5011118113
O. Varlamov10
LSep 27 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko1.501111153O. Varlamov2.5057130LSep 13 · 11:00O. Varlamov3.0010430A. Droshchynskyi1.361211113LSep 13 · 09:00Y. Bondarenko1.441011711153O. Varlamov2.63128118142LSep 13 · 08:00O. Varlamov1.8068111182Y. Holoborodko1.91111186113LSep 13 · 07:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.61881612133O. Varlamov2.2011111410112WSep 13 · 05:30O. Varlamov1.91921112113A. Zozulia1.80111171062WSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193LSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143
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