TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Merzlikin vs Oleksandr Blashkun 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611611118111––
Oleksandr Blashkun
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:03 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Blashkun to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Oleksandr Blashkun below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 1-11
Point 65 set 4, 1-11 — our read held Oleksandr Blashkun at 63.7%
65 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 3–7 Oleksandr Blashkun Valerii Merzlikin has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Blashkun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Blashkun
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1577 vs Blashkun 1618
Blashkun
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 40% vs Blashkun 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 60% vs Blashkun 40%
Merzlikin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin +2 · Blashkun +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Blashkun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Blashkun form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 2.50 / Blashkun 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Blashkun)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13185558
Merzlikin2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 19)
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog49% won 37 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back31% 14 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Blashkun1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 26 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it68% 19 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerzlikin3wins
AwayBlashkun7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBlashkun leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin66.7%2 of 3
AwayBlashkun85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin3Blashkun7n = 10Blashkun took 7 of 10
S2Merzlikin4Blashkun6n = 10Blashkun took 6 of 10
S3Merzlikin3Blashkun7n = 10Blashkun took 7 of 10
S4Merzlikin3Blashkun3n = 6split evenly
S5Merzlikin1Blashkun2n = 3Blashkun took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerzlikinBlashkunM − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.040.8−6.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinBlashkunBasisWin rate · lifetime274 / 608 vs 90 / 18845.1%47.9%274 / 608 vs 90 / 188Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BlashkunMerzlikin 2.50/Blashkun 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Blashkun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Blashkun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 09:00V. Merzlikin351013841O. Blashkun45121111113
LAug 29 · 13:40V. Merzlikin214980O. Blashkun331111113
WAug 15 · 12:10V. Merzlikin44126114113O. Blashkun46101171172
LAug 13 · 12:10V. Merzlikin197750O. Blashkun331111113
LAug 8 · 17:10V. Merzlikin2653180O. Blashkun421111203
LJun 20 · 14:40V. Merzlikin4511811782O. Blashkun45811411113
WApr 5 · 06:00V. Merzlikin4681114133O. Blashkun4011612111
WMar 22 · 10:00V. Merzlikin3911134113O. Blashkun387111191
LMar 21 · 14:10V. Merzlikin4281291122O. Blashkun521110119113
LFeb 26 · 12:10V. Merzlikin2351080O. Blashkun341112113
V. Merzlikin10
WSep 19 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.0011611113O. Kuzyshyn1.73611851WSep 19 · 15:10V. Merzlikin1.611111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.201960LSep 19 · 12:10V. Merzlikin3.754611111A. Droshchynskyi1.2511114133LSep 19 · 10:40V. Merzlikin1.834470A. Zozulia1.831111113LSep 17 · 16:40V. Merzlikin1.83115791V. Maksuta1.8391111113WSep 17 · 15:10V. Merzlikin2.201111113Y. Holoborodko1.617880LSep 17 · 13:40V. Merzlikin4.00147331A. Droshchynskyi1.22121111113WSep 17 · 12:10V. Merzlikin2.6311911113I. Efimenko1.44911291WSep 17 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.251114113A. Zozulia1.5761290WSep 16 · 17:10V. Merzlikin1.53111110113D. Habrelyan2.38491241
O. Blashkun10
WSep 23 · 17:40O. Blashkun1.6761111113Y. Holoborodko2.10119791WSep 23 · 15:40O. Zhyrnov1.53711291O. Blashkun2.3811811113LSep 23 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn1.6114911113O. Blashkun2.201211441LSep 23 · 12:40O. Blashkun1.674118101D. Habrelyan2.1011211123LSep 23 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.6171111113O. Blashkun2.20118891LAug 30 · 10:30O. Blashkun1.40561171Y. Makovka2.7511117113WAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841LAug 30 · 07:30O. Blashkun1.44131112482R. Sopivnyk2.631191411113WAug 30 · 06:00O. Blashkun2.251211113O. Zhyrnov1.5710890LAug 30 · 04:30O. Blashkun1.61115691Y. Holoborodko2.2051111113
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