TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Oleksandra Ivchenko vs Ksenia Tymchenko 3-2 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711118711113116
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:55 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandra Ivchenko to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandra Ivchenko above · Ksenia Tymchenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 86 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Oleksandra Ivchenko at 75.3%
86 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandra Ivchenko 46–16 Ksenia Tymchenko Ksenia Tymchenko has won 16 of their 62 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:55What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Ivchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
46-16 in 62
Ivchenko
Correct
gap of 30 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ivchenko 1593 vs Tymchenko 1449
Ivchenko
Correct
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ivchenko 60% vs Tymchenko 0%
Ivchenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ivchenko 50% vs Tymchenko 20%
Ivchenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ivchenko +2 · Tymchenko -7
Tymchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Ivchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tymchenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIvchenko 1.33 / Tymchenko 3.25
Signal prob.73% / 28%
Edge (Ivchenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup Women · #13197686
Ivchenko1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 113 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it92% 58 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it77% 78 of 101
Tymchenko3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 37 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back9% 5 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIvchenko7wins
AwayTymchenko3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderIvchenko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIvchenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayTymchenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ivchenko7Tymchenko3n = 10Ivchenko took 7 of 10
S2Ivchenko6Tymchenko4n = 10Ivchenko took 6 of 10
S3Ivchenko6Tymchenko4n = 10Ivchenko took 6 of 10
S4Ivchenko5Tymchenko1n = 6Ivchenko took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricIvchenkoTymchenkoI − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.436.8+2.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIvchenkoTymchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime330 / 540 vs 133 / 38261.1%34.8%330 / 540 vs 133 / 382Avg sets wonper match2.31.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.535.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvchenkoIvchenko 1.33/Tymchenko 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.5%
Ivchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ivchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 30 · 12:35O. Ivchenko341112113K. Tymchenko2681080
WAug 23 · 13:05O. Ivchenko44101112113K. Tymchenko401291091
WAug 16 · 13:35O. Ivchenko4111118113K. Tymchenko35961191
LJul 31 · 15:35O. Ivchenko26132110K. Tymchenko391511133
LJul 19 · 19:05O. Ivchenko45311111192K. Tymchenko44111345113
WJul 18 · 17:35O. Ivchenko3711411113K. Tymchenko33711781
WJul 11 · 16:35O. Ivchenko331111113K. Tymchenko259790
WJul 10 · 15:35O. Ivchenko4615119113K. Tymchenko371371161
LJul 4 · 17:05O. Ivchenko4912911892K. Tymchenko521011911113
O. Ivchenko10
LSep 26 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.361111113O. Ivchenko3.009490WSep 26 · 13:35M. Gordeets1.80811150O. Ivchenko1.911113173WSep 20 · 17:40A. Gorchakova2.63117851O. Ivchenko1.4491111113LSep 20 · 17:05A. Volgina1.8311812123O. Ivchenko1.8351110101LSep 20 · 15:35O. Ivchenko1.4411117442A. Gorchakova2.6393111173WSep 20 · 14:05O. Ivchenko1.441311113A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.6311890LSep 20 · 12:35O. Ivchenko1.804750V. Shevchuk1.911111113LSep 19 · 19:35O. Ivchenko1.22412351O. Bondareva4.00111011113WSep 19 · 17:35A. Lapa2.75113741O. Ivchenko1.4071111113LSep 19 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.4081111113O. Ivchenko2.75119461
K. Tymchenko10
LSep 26 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.221111113K. Tymchenko4.005890LSep 6 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3.408760A. Gorchakova1.301111113LSep 6 · 15:35K. Tymchenko2.50451131V. Shevchuk1.5011117113LSep 4 · 19:05K. Tymchenko3.256960A. Gorchakova1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.2211116593K. Tymchenko4.0099111162LSep 4 · 16:05K. Tymchenko2.50711771M. Gordeets1.5011411113LSep 4 · 15:05A. Lapa1.4017811113K. Tymchenko2.751511481WSep 4 · 13:35K. Tymchenko2.631110611133A. Volgina1.44512116112WAug 30 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.63111111113A. Lapa1.44913671LAug 30 · 17:05K. Tymchenko3.251191081A. Gorchakova1.3381112113
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