TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Sep 20Finished
Oleksandra Ivchenko
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11911371141147
Anna Gorchakova
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:14 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandra Ivchenko to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandra Ivchenko above · Anna Gorchakova below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 4-7
Point 78 set 5, 4-7 — our read held Oleksandra Ivchenko at 66.1%
78 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandra Ivchenko 44–17 Anna Gorchakova Anna Gorchakova has won 17 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:14What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Ivchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-17 in 61
Ivchenko
Wrong
gap of 27 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ivchenko 1577 vs Gorchakova 1536
Ivchenko
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ivchenko 40% vs Gorchakova 60%
Gorchakova
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ivchenko 40% vs Gorchakova 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ivchenko +1 · Gorchakova -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Ivchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gorchakova form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIvchenko 1.44 / Gorchakova 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Ivchenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup Women · #13161666
Ivchenko1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 116 of 189
Up 2–0, closes it94% 59 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it78% 80 of 102
Gorchakova2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog30% won 42 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back15% 13 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIvchenko6wins
AwayGorchakova4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderIvchenko leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIvchenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayGorchakova75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ivchenko6Gorchakova4n = 10Ivchenko took 6 of 10
S2Ivchenko7Gorchakova3n = 10Ivchenko took 7 of 10
S3Ivchenko6Gorchakova4n = 10Ivchenko took 6 of 10
S4Ivchenko1Gorchakova6n = 7Gorchakova took 6 of 7
S5Ivchenko3Gorchakova2n = 5Ivchenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricIvchenkoGorchakovaI − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.641.7+0.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIvchenkoGorchakovaBasisWin rate · lifetime333 / 546 vs 199 / 42961%46.4%333 / 546 vs 199 / 429Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.635.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvchenkoIvchenko 1.44/Gorchakova 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Ivchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Gorchakova won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 12 · 15:35O. Ivchenko45811511102A. Gorchakova46113119123
LSep 6 · 15:05O. Ivchenko32712581A. Gorchakova43111011113
LAug 30 · 19:05O. Ivchenko521110111372A. Gorchakova51812515113
WAug 23 · 14:05O. Ivchenko331111113A. Gorchakova259970
WAug 22 · 15:05O. Ivchenko52111189133A. Gorchakova48871111112
WAug 16 · 14:35O. Ivchenko331111113A. Gorchakova197570
WAug 7 · 12:35O. Ivchenko48111493113A. Gorchakova49912111162
WJul 25 · 16:35O. Ivchenko45113146113A. Gorchakova52911121192
LJul 24 · 17:05O. Ivchenko43101011121A. Gorchakova4212124143
O. Ivchenko10
WSep 20 · 14:05O. Ivchenko1.441311113A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.6311890LSep 20 · 12:35O. Ivchenko1.804750V. Shevchuk1.911111113LSep 19 · 19:35O. Ivchenko1.22412351O. Bondareva4.00111011113WSep 19 · 17:35A. Lapa2.75113741O. Ivchenko1.4071111113LSep 19 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.4081111113O. Ivchenko2.75119461WSep 19 · 14:35O. Ivchenko1.831111123V. Shevchuk1.8378100WSep 19 · 13:35A. Volgina1.834990O. Ivchenko1.831111113LSep 12 · 19:35O. Ivchenko1.83910111142M. Gordeets1.83111274113WSep 12 · 17:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.00981461O. Ivchenko1.3611111262LSep 12 · 15:35A. Gorchakova2.75113119123O. Ivchenko1.40811511102
A. Gorchakova10
LSep 20 · 16:35A. Gorchakova3.756950V. Shevchuk1.251111113LSep 20 · 14:35A. Volgina1.441111113A. Gorchakova2.638670WSep 20 · 13:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.2581090A. Gorchakova1.331112113WSep 12 · 18:35A. Gorchakova1.3611117113A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.00491161LSep 12 · 17:05A. Gorchakova3.0081411141A. Volgina1.3611167163WSep 12 · 15:35A. Gorchakova2.75113119123O. Ivchenko1.40811511102LSep 12 · 14:05A. Gorchakova3.759700M. Gordeets1.25111113LSep 12 · 12:35A. Gorchakova3.75131511852V. Shevchuk1.251117511113WSep 10 · 18:35A. Gorchakova1.3311911113Y. Severina3.25511831LSep 10 · 17:05A. Gorchakova2.6311114572K. Bondarenko1.44971111113
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