TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Anna Lapa vs Oleksandra Ivchenko 2-3 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11811131513411811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:05 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandra Ivchenko to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnna Lapa above · Oleksandra Ivchenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 105 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Oleksandra Ivchenko at 67.9%
105 points played in total.
H2H Anna Lapa 24–66 Oleksandra Ivchenko Anna Lapa has won 24 of their 90 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:05What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Ivchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-66 in 90
Ivchenko
Correct
gap of 42 in 90, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lapa 1434 vs Ivchenko 1573
Ivchenko
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lapa 20% vs Ivchenko 60%
Ivchenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lapa 20% vs Ivchenko 50%
Ivchenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lapa +1 · Ivchenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Ivchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivchenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLapa 3.25 / Ivchenko 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 73%
Edge (Ivchenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup Women · #13196055
Lapa3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 36 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back13% 9 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 42
Ivchenko1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 113 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it92% 58 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it77% 78 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLapa1wins
AwayIvchenko9wins
6 of 10 to a deciderIvchenko leads 9–1, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLapa0%0 of 5
AwayIvchenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lapa5Ivchenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Lapa2Ivchenko8n = 10Ivchenko took 8 of 10
S3Lapa5Ivchenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Lapa3Ivchenko6n = 9Ivchenko took 6 of 9
S5Lapa1Ivchenko5n = 6Ivchenko took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLapaIvchenkoL − IBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.144.6−6.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLapaIvchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 458 vs 330 / 54050.2%61.1%230 / 458 vs 330 / 540Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvchenkoLapa 3.25/Ivchenko 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.5%
Ivchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ivchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 17:35A. Lapa25113741O. Ivchenko4071111113
LAug 30 · 16:35A. Lapa371191161O. Ivchenko4013115113
LAug 16 · 15:35A. Lapa208570O. Ivchenko331111113
LAug 7 · 19:05A. Lapa47111171262O. Ivchenko51871114113
LJul 31 · 17:35A. Lapa48111161192O. Ivchenko48613117113
LJul 24 · 15:05A. Lapa4258111262O. Ivchenko521111910113
LJul 19 · 16:35A. Lapa4011514462O. Ivchenko538111211113
LJun 27 · 17:05A. Lapa32781161O. Ivchenko4111118113
WJun 26 · 15:35A. Lapa47711117113O. Ivchenko4411991142
LJun 21 · 16:35A. Lapa4311691162O. Ivchenko44511116113
A. Lapa10
WSep 26 · 16:35A. Lapa1.401112113K. Tymchenko2.7581080LSep 26 · 15:05A. Lapa2.201071171M. Gordeets1.6112118113LSep 26 · 13:05A. Lapa3.40811881V. Shevchuk1.3011311113LSep 19 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.361111113A. Lapa3.008820LSep 19 · 17:35A. Lapa2.75113741O. Ivchenko1.4071111113LSep 19 · 16:35A. Lapa3.4081112872V. Shevchuk1.301181011113LSep 19 · 15:05A. Lapa2.509750A. Volgina1.501111113WSep 19 · 13:05A. Lapa1.3312311113O. Bondareva3.251011741LSep 4 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.401771311123A. Lapa2.751511156102LSep 4 · 17:35A. Lapa2.201071151A. Volgina1.6112116113
O. Ivchenko10
LSep 26 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.361111113O. Ivchenko3.009490WSep 26 · 14:35O. Ivchenko1.33711711113K. Tymchenko3.2511811362WSep 26 · 13:35M. Gordeets1.80811150O. Ivchenko1.911113173WSep 20 · 17:40A. Gorchakova2.63117851O. Ivchenko1.4491111113LSep 20 · 17:05A. Volgina1.8311812123O. Ivchenko1.8351110101LSep 20 · 15:35O. Ivchenko1.4411117442A. Gorchakova2.6393111173WSep 20 · 14:05O. Ivchenko1.441311113A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.6311890LSep 20 · 12:35O. Ivchenko1.804750V. Shevchuk1.911111113LSep 19 · 19:35O. Ivchenko1.22412351O. Bondareva4.00111011113WSep 19 · 17:35A. Lapa2.75113741O. Ivchenko1.4071111113
Upcoming Matches
A. Lapa
Nothing scheduled
O. Ivchenko
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