TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13155518
Played Sep 19Finished
Kateryna Bondarenko
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118112––––
Anna Lapa
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:57 and never touched — 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeKateryna Bondarenko to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKateryna Bondarenko above · Anna Lapa below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 51 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Kateryna Bondarenko at 73.2%
51 points played in total.
H2H Kateryna Bondarenko 11–3 Anna Lapa Anna Lapa has won 3 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:57What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Bondarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-3 in 14
Bondarenko
Correct
gap of 8 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarenko 1689 vs Lapa 1454
Bondarenko
Correct
both rated, 236 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarenko 80% vs Lapa 20%
Bondarenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarenko 80% vs Lapa 30%
Bondarenko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarenko +4 · Lapa -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Bondarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lapa form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarenko 1.36 / Lapa 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Bondarenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup Women · #13155518
Bondarenko1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 75 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it84% 48 of 57
Lapa3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 36 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back13% 9 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBondarenko8wins
AwayLapa2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBondarenko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarenko100%6 of 6
AwayLapa50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarenko6Lapa4n = 10Bondarenko took 6 of 10
S2Bondarenko5Lapa5n = 10split evenly
S3Bondarenko5Lapa5n = 10split evenly
S4Bondarenko5Lapa3n = 8Bondarenko took 5 of 8
S5Bondarenko4Lapa0n = 4Bondarenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBondarenkoLapaB − LBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.537.6+3.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarenkoLapaBasisWin rate · lifetime90 / 130 vs 233 / 46369.2%50.3%90 / 130 vs 233 / 463Avg sets wonper match2.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match41.337.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarenkoBondarenko 1.36/Lapa 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.4%
Bondarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Bondarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 18:35K. Bondarenko601771311123A. Lapa571511156102
LAug 16 · 18:35K. Bondarenko30591151A. Lapa3911116113
LAug 7 · 15:05K. Bondarenko239950A. Lapa331111113
WAug 2 · 18:35K. Bondarenko4311129113A. Lapa326101151
WJul 31 · 16:35K. Bondarenko45712114113A. Lapa45111081152
WJul 26 · 17:05K. Bondarenko4211117133A. Lapa329111111
WJun 12 · 18:35K. Bondarenko48691111113A. Lapa4311117862
WJun 5 · 16:35K. Bondarenko481141111113A. Lapa4291111382
WMay 24 · 13:35K. Bondarenko4211119113A. Lapa25321191
WMay 15 · 17:35K. Bondarenko341112113A. Lapa2891090
K. Bondarenko10
WSep 19 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.5011118113A. Volgina2.50571141WSep 19 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.4081111113O. Ivchenko2.75119461WSep 19 · 14:05K. Bondarenko1.28611812113O. Bondareva3.50115111072WSep 19 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.611111113V. Shevchuk2.2075100LSep 10 · 19:05K. Bondarenko1.6787111262M. Gordeets2.101111510113WSep 10 · 17:05A. Gorchakova2.6311114572K. Bondarenko1.44971111113LSep 10 · 16:05K. Bondarenko1.50124691V. Shevchuk2.50101111113WSep 10 · 15:05Y. Severina2.754711101K. Bondarenko1.4011119123WSep 10 · 13:35K. Bondarenko1.611112113A. Volgina2.2071070WSep 4 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.401771311123A. Lapa2.751511156102
A. Lapa10
LSep 19 · 17:35A. Lapa2.75113741O. Ivchenko1.4071111113LSep 19 · 16:35A. Lapa3.4081112872V. Shevchuk1.301181011113LSep 19 · 15:05A. Lapa2.509750A. Volgina1.501111113WSep 19 · 13:05A. Lapa1.3312311113O. Bondareva3.251011741LSep 4 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.401771311123A. Lapa2.751511156102LSep 4 · 17:35A. Lapa2.201071151A. Volgina1.6112116113LSep 4 · 16:35A. Lapa2.2010870A. Gorchakova1.611211113WSep 4 · 15:05A. Lapa1.4017811113K. Tymchenko2.751511481WSep 4 · 13:05A. Lapa2.2011611133M. Gordeets1.618116111LAug 30 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.63111111113A. Lapa1.44913671
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