TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Anna Lapa vs Ksenia Tymchenko 3-0 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181210118––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:05 and never touched — 69.8% is still 69.8%
Graded at full timeAnna Lapa to win
69.8%
69.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnna Lapa above · Ksenia Tymchenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 60 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Anna Lapa at 69.8%
60 points played in total.
H2H Anna Lapa 40–14 Ksenia Tymchenko Ksenia Tymchenko has won 14 of their 54 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:05What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Lapa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-14 in 54
Lapa
Correct
gap of 26 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lapa 1418 vs Tymchenko 1450
Tymchenko
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lapa 0% vs Tymchenko 0%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lapa 10% vs Tymchenko 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lapa -6 · Tymchenko -8
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Lapa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tymchenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLapa 1.40 / Tymchenko 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Lapa)+3.5pp
Setka Cup Women · #13196050
Lapa1.40
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite72% won 36 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it81% 25 of 31
Tymchenko2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 8
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 37 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back9% 5 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLapa7wins
AwayTymchenko3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLapa leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLapa100%5 of 5
AwayTymchenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lapa5Tymchenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Lapa6Tymchenko4n = 10Lapa took 6 of 10
S3Lapa8Tymchenko2n = 10Lapa took 8 of 10
S4Lapa5Tymchenko3n = 8Lapa took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLapaTymchenkoL − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.535.9+3.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLapaTymchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 458 vs 132 / 38250%34.6%229 / 458 vs 132 / 382Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.735.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LapaLapa 1.40/Tymchenko 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.8%
Lapa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lapa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 15:05A. Lapa4717811113K. Tymchenko381511481
LAug 30 · 18:35A. Lapa35913671K. Tymchenko44111111113
LAug 20 · 18:35A. Lapa33971161K. Tymchenko3711114113
WAug 16 · 17:05A. Lapa351112123K. Tymchenko27710100
WAug 2 · 15:05A. Lapa331111113K. Tymchenko148240
WJul 31 · 18:35A. Lapa3631111113K. Tymchenko30116851
WJul 19 · 15:05A. Lapa4061111123K. Tymchenko321165101
WJul 3 · 16:35A. Lapa551111713133K. Tymchenko53791115112
WJun 7 · 16:35A. Lapa4014411113K. Tymchenko391211881
LJun 5 · 15:05A. Lapa4175111172K. Tymchenko45111193113
A. Lapa10
LSep 26 · 15:05A. Lapa2.201071171M. Gordeets1.6112118113LSep 26 · 13:05A. Lapa3.40811881V. Shevchuk1.3011311113LSep 19 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.361111113A. Lapa3.008820LSep 19 · 17:35A. Lapa2.75113741O. Ivchenko1.4071111113LSep 19 · 16:35A. Lapa3.4081112872V. Shevchuk1.301181011113LSep 19 · 15:05A. Lapa2.509750A. Volgina1.501111113WSep 19 · 13:05A. Lapa1.3312311113O. Bondareva3.251011741LSep 4 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.401771311123A. Lapa2.751511156102LSep 4 · 17:35A. Lapa2.201071151A. Volgina1.6112116113LSep 4 · 16:35A. Lapa2.2010870A. Gorchakova1.611211113
K. Tymchenko10
LSep 26 · 14:35O. Ivchenko1.33711711113K. Tymchenko3.2511811362LSep 26 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.221111113K. Tymchenko4.005890LSep 6 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3.408760A. Gorchakova1.301111113LSep 6 · 15:35K. Tymchenko2.50451131V. Shevchuk1.5011117113LSep 4 · 19:05K. Tymchenko3.256960A. Gorchakova1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.2211116593K. Tymchenko4.0099111162LSep 4 · 16:05K. Tymchenko2.50711771M. Gordeets1.5011411113LSep 4 · 15:05A. Lapa1.4017811113K. Tymchenko2.751511481WSep 4 · 13:35K. Tymchenko2.631110611133A. Volgina1.44512116112WAug 30 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.63111111113A. Lapa1.44913671
Upcoming Matches
A. Lapa
K. Tymchenko
Sep 26 · 18:05K. Tymchenko2.75V. Shevchuk1.40—Sep 26 · 19:05K. Tymchenko2.50M. Gordeets1.50—Sep 27 · 13:35K. Tymchenko2.63V. Shevchuk1.44—Sep 27 · 15:05K. Tymchenko1.53A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.38—Sep 27 · 16:05K. Tymchenko2.50M. Gordeets1.50—Sep 27 · 17:05K. Tymchenko3.75A. Gorchakova1.25—Sep 27 · 19:05K. Tymchenko3.25O. Ivchenko1.33—
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