TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jaroslav Dohnal vs Simon Holik 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911811––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSimon Holik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Dohnal above · Simon Holik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 59 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Simon Holik at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Dohnal 6–4 Simon Holik Simon Holik has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:55What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Holik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Dohnal
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dohnal 1471 vs Holik 1582
Holik
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dohnal 60% vs Holik 80%
Holik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dohnal 40% vs Holik 70%
Holik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dohnal -1 · Holik +3
Holik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDohnal 1.83 / Holik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Holik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13194069
Dohnal1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 20)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Holik1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDohnal6wins
AwayHolik4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDohnal leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDohnal71.4%5 of 7
AwayHolik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dohnal7Holik3n = 10Dohnal took 7 of 10
S2Dohnal5Holik5n = 10split evenly
S3Dohnal6Holik4n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S4Dohnal4Holik3n = 7Dohnal took 4 of 7
S5Dohnal1Holik2n = 3Holik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDohnalHolikD − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.037.5+1.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDohnalHolikBasisWin rate · lifetime393 / 668 vs 113 / 20658.8%54.9%393 / 668 vs 113 / 206Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.839.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolikDohnal 1.83/Holik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Holik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Holik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 11:50J. Dohnal4211119562S. Holik49881111113
LAug 29 · 13:25J. Dohnal341011851S. Holik4112711113
WJun 28 · 17:20J. Dohnal331111113S. Holik229580
LJun 28 · 15:20J. Dohnal3912411752S. Holik521011911113
LMay 2 · 12:55J. Dohnal2375110S. Holik351111133
WApr 12 · 13:29J. Dohnal60119811213S. Holik53611116192
WApr 12 · 12:20J. Dohnal351113113S. Holik2791170
WJun 15 · 14:20J. Dohnal4212811113S. Holik351011771
WJun 15 · 12:40J. Dohnal4111811113S. Holik32911571
WApr 5 · 14:20J. Dohnal4181111113S. Holik29116931
J. Dohnal10
LSep 20 · 18:30A. Jr2.2012119113J. Dohnal1.611041191WSep 20 · 17:25B. Budik1.72114971J. Dohnal2.0091111113LSep 20 · 16:25J. Dohnal1.401111561A. Jr2.7561311113WSep 20 · 14:55T. Rein2.3812660J. Dohnal1.531411113WSep 19 · 22:04T. Rein2.2510113101J. Dohnal1.5712511123LSep 19 · 21:25J. Dohnal2.1095111182B. Budik1.53111169113LSep 19 · 19:55T. Rein2.63711711123J. Dohnal1.44117119102LSep 19 · 19:25C. Kratochvil2.381211153J. Dohnal1.53108140WSep 13 · 17:53J. Cousin2.50331121J. Dohnal1.5011117113LSep 13 · 16:55J. Dohnal1.501110851J. Cousin2.5061211113
S. Holik10
WSep 25 · 13:55F. Dvorak1.671173101S. Holik2.1071111123WSep 25 · 12:20T. Jr2.10711111182S. Holik1.67111347113WSep 25 · 11:50T. Rein2.50921181S. Holik1.5011118113LSep 25 · 10:50S. Holik1.80691151F. Dvorak1.9111116113WSep 18 · 14:30P. Vodal1.8511117111S. Holik1.8591311133WSep 18 · 13:25S. Holik1.801513113O. Knazik1.91131180LSep 18 · 11:55P. Vodal1.83131112113S. Holik1.8311131081WSep 18 · 11:25V. Koutnik2.10712781S. Holik1.67111011113WSep 16 · 14:30F. Dvorak1.6111116782S. Holik2.20651111113LSep 16 · 13:25S. Holik1.73711651F. Dvorak2.0011911113
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