TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ales Brandtl Jr
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210114911119––
Jaroslav Dohnal
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:23 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Brandtl Jr above · Jaroslav Dohnal below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 62.1%
77 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Jr 3–4 Jaroslav Dohnal Ales Brandtl Jr has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Jr beat Dohnal 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:23What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dohnal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1470 vs Dohnal 1484
Dohnal
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Dohnal 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 70% vs Dohnal 40%
Jr
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +3 · Dohnal +1
Jr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Dohnal) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.20 / Dohnal 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Dohnal)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13165965
Jr2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 73 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back27% 30 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 63
Dohnal1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 117 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it92% 59 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it69% 84 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeJr3wins
AwayDohnal4wins
1 of 7 to a deciderDohnal leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJrn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDohnal80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr2Dohnal5n = 7Dohnal took 5 of 7
S2Jr2Dohnal5n = 7Dohnal took 5 of 7
S3Jr5Dohnal2n = 7Jr took 5 of 7
S4Jr4Dohnal2n = 6Jr took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricJrDohnalJ − DBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match38.639.6−1.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrDohnalBasisWin rate · lifetime255 / 543 vs 393 / 66747%58.9%255 / 543 vs 393 / 667Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.240.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalJr 2.20/Dohnal 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 20 · 16:25A. Jr4161311113J. Dohnal331111561
LSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr4587111182J. Dohnal50111189113
WSep 5 · 12:25A. Jr49111611113J. Dohnal36918271
LDec 8 · 20:55A. Jr2261150J. Dohnal351113113
LOct 28 · 03:20A. Jr385141271J. Dohnal48111214113
WOct 17 · 23:50A. Jr4111811113J. Dohnal33611881
LOct 9 · 19:55A. Jr346711101J. Dohnal4211118123
A. Jr10
WSep 20 · 16:55T. Rein1.61117381A. Jr2.2031111113WSep 20 · 16:25J. Dohnal1.401111561A. Jr2.7561311113WSep 20 · 15:25A. Jr2.401111711133B. Budik1.51513116112LSep 20 · 14:30L. Rek1.401111113A. Jr2.807780LSep 20 · 13:25A. Jr2.638111271L. Rek1.4411714113WSep 20 · 11:55C. Kratochvil1.7311112952A. Jr2.00981111113WSep 20 · 11:25Z. Dusek1.839550A. Jr1.831111113LSep 19 · 18:30A. Jr2.105111191V. Koutnik1.6511138113WSep 19 · 17:25A. Jr2.2511116113V. Koutnik1.57741151WSep 19 · 15:55J. Cousin1.4451113972A. Jr2.631191111113
J. Dohnal10
WSep 20 · 17:25B. Budik1.72114971J. Dohnal2.0091111113LSep 20 · 16:25J. Dohnal1.401111561A. Jr2.7561311113WSep 20 · 14:55T. Rein2.3812660J. Dohnal1.531411113WSep 19 · 22:04T. Rein2.2510113101J. Dohnal1.5712511123LSep 19 · 21:25J. Dohnal2.1095111182B. Budik1.53111169113LSep 19 · 19:55T. Rein2.63711711123J. Dohnal1.44117119102LSep 19 · 19:25C. Kratochvil2.381211153J. Dohnal1.53108140WSep 13 · 17:53J. Cousin2.50331121J. Dohnal1.5011117113LSep 13 · 16:55J. Dohnal1.501110851J. Cousin2.5061211113LSep 13 · 15:55J. Dohnal1.839111121P. Vodal1.8311138113
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