TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Tomas Rein
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
113711311811––
Ales Brandtl Jr
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:54 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeAles Brandtl Jr to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Ales Brandtl Jr below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 65 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Ales Brandtl Jr at 54.8%
65 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 20–23 Ales Brandtl Jr Tomas Rein has won 20 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:54What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Rein
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-23 in 43
Jr
Correct
gap of 3 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1408 vs Jr 1450
Jr
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 40% vs Jr 60%
Jr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 50% vs Jr 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein +1 · Jr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Rein) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 1.61 / Jr 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Rein)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13164082
Rein1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 55 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it91% 32 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it77% 44 of 57
Jr2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 73 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back27% 30 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRein7wins
AwayJr3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderRein leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRein100%7 of 7
AwayJr100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein7Jr3n = 10Rein took 7 of 10
S2Rein4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Rein7Jr3n = 10Rein took 7 of 10
S4Rein4Jr2n = 6Rein took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricReinJrR − JBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.431.9+6.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinJrBasisWin rate · lifetime388 / 844 vs 254 / 54246%46.9%388 / 844 vs 254 / 542Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ReinRein 1.61/Jr 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.9%
Rein · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 16:50T. Rein331111113A. Jr165740
LAug 27 · 17:53T. Rein178270A. Jr331111113
WAug 27 · 16:20T. Rein581161612133A. Jr577111810112
WAug 26 · 14:05T. Rein341111123A. Jr2367100
WAug 26 · 11:55T. Rein331111113A. Jr157350
WAug 22 · 10:03T. Rein4515811113A. Jr371311761
LAug 22 · 08:55T. Rein351011861A. Jr3812411113
WAug 21 · 15:50T. Rein4211911113A. Jr30511951
LAug 20 · 11:55T. Rein4491111131A. Jr4011131153
WAug 14 · 12:20T. Rein43111011113A. Jr30712741
T. Rein10
WSep 20 · 15:55T. Rein2.95111011113B. Budik1.33712951LSep 20 · 14:55T. Rein2.3812660J. Dohnal1.531411113LSep 19 · 22:04T. Rein2.2510113101J. Dohnal1.5712511123LSep 19 · 20:55T. Rein2.759860C. Kratochvil1.401111113WSep 19 · 19:55T. Rein2.63711711123J. Dohnal1.44117119102WSep 19 · 18:55T. Rein2.40511411113B. Budik1.5111711892LSep 16 · 22:38R. Muller1.2810111011113T. Rein3.5012812362WSep 16 · 21:25J. Cousin1.5741111992T. Rein2.25119411113LSep 16 · 20:25T. Rein2.00713891R. Muller1.73111111113WSep 16 · 18:55C. Kratochvil1.2841060T. Rein3.501112113
A. Jr10
WSep 20 · 16:25J. Dohnal1.401111561A. Jr2.7561311113WSep 20 · 15:25A. Jr2.401111711133B. Budik1.51513116112LSep 20 · 14:30L. Rek1.401111113A. Jr2.807780LSep 20 · 13:25A. Jr2.638111271L. Rek1.4411714113WSep 20 · 11:55C. Kratochvil1.7311112952A. Jr2.00981111113WSep 20 · 11:25Z. Dusek1.839550A. Jr1.831111113LSep 19 · 18:30A. Jr2.105111191V. Koutnik1.6511138113WSep 19 · 17:25A. Jr2.2511116113V. Koutnik1.57741151WSep 19 · 15:55J. Cousin1.4451113972A. Jr2.631191111113LSep 19 · 15:25C. Kratochvil1.73129118113A. Jr2.00101181192
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