TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Cerveny Jr vs Simon Holik 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111113114117811
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:11 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeSimon Holik to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Simon Holik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 94 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Simon Holik at 56.2%
94 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 5–8 Simon Holik Tomas Cerveny Jr has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:11What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Holik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Holik
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1551 vs Holik 1559
Holik
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Holik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 70% vs Holik 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Holik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Holik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.10 / Holik 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Holik)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13191348
Jr2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 38 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 35
Holik1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 26 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr4wins
AwayHolik6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHolik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr50%3 of 6
AwayHolik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr6Holik4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Jr4Holik6n = 10Holik took 6 of 10
S3Jr6Holik4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S4Jr2Holik6n = 8Holik took 6 of 8
S5Jr1Holik2n = 3Holik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrHolikJ − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.937.9−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrHolikBasisWin rate · lifetime332 / 605 vs 111 / 20454.9%54.4%332 / 605 vs 111 / 204Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolikJr 2.10/Holik 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Holik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMar 2 · 09:55T. Jr175660S. Holik331111113
WFeb 17 · 11:00T. Jr361113123S. Holik29811100
LFeb 17 · 08:50T. Jr49101111892S. Holik50129711113
WJan 17 · 23:35T. Jr49111177133S. Holik50981111112
LJan 17 · 21:55T. Jr46115119102S. Holik38211211123
LJan 11 · 22:40T. Jr31119831S. Holik3961111113
LJan 11 · 20:20T. Jr28112961S. Holik4071111113
WDec 31 · 15:25T. Jr3811511113S. Holik33511891
LDec 31 · 13:55T. Jr35791451S. Holik45111112113
WDec 7 · 16:20T. Jr4071111113S. Holik22112271
T. Jr10
WSep 25 · 13:25T. Jr1.5312119113T. Rein2.381051181LSep 25 · 11:20T. Jr2.636740F. Dvorak1.441111113WSep 25 · 10:20T. Jr1.501111113T. Rein2.508760WSep 22 · 22:00P. Cibik3.25117881T. Jr1.3391111113WSep 22 · 20:50T. Barsa1.7311991182T. Jr2.00311118113LSep 22 · 19:50T. Jr1.3071011101P. Cibik3.4011126123WSep 22 · 18:20L. Vich1.83118861T. Jr1.8371111113WSep 21 · 14:00T. Jr1.20111111113M. Kolbusovsky3.80881391LSep 21 · 12:50J. Vintr2.2512155113T. Jr1.5710131181WSep 21 · 11:50T. Jr1.53111111113M. Kolbusovsky2.38691381
S. Holik10
WSep 25 · 11:50T. Rein2.50921181S. Holik1.5011118113LSep 25 · 10:50S. Holik1.80691151F. Dvorak1.9111116113WSep 18 · 14:30P. Vodal1.8511117111S. Holik1.8591311133WSep 18 · 13:25S. Holik1.801513113O. Knazik1.91131180LSep 18 · 11:55P. Vodal1.83131112113S. Holik1.8311131081WSep 18 · 11:25V. Koutnik2.10712781S. Holik1.67111011113WSep 16 · 14:30F. Dvorak1.6111116782S. Holik2.20651111113LSep 16 · 13:25S. Holik1.73711651F. Dvorak2.0011911113WSep 16 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.2515118362S. Holik1.571381111113WSep 16 · 11:25T. Rein2.25118851S. Holik1.5761111113
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