TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Cerveny Jr vs Pavel Cibik 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
71110121161012––
Pavel Cibik
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:36 and never touched — 62.3% is still 62.3%
Graded at full timeTomas Cerveny Jr to win
62.3%
62.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Pavel Cibik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 79 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 62.3%
79 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 31–8 Pavel Cibik Pavel Cibik has won 8 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:36What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-8 in 39
Jr
Wrong
gap of 23 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1548 vs Cibik 1545
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 80% vs Cibik 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 80% vs Cibik 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +2 · Cibik +4
Cibik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cibik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.30 / Cibik 3.40
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Jr)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13176820
Jr1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 72 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it83% 57 of 69
Cibik3.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 66 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back27% 22 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr9wins
AwayCibik1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr87.5%7 of 8
AwayCibikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr8Cibik2n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S2Jr7Cibik3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S3Jr7Cibik3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S4Jr5Cibik1n = 6Jr took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrCibikJ − CBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.431.8+8.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrCibikBasisWin rate · lifetime332 / 604 vs 316 / 68255%46.3%332 / 604 vs 316 / 682Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.30/Cibik 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.7%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 21:55T. Jr351110771P. Cibik4281211113
WSep 20 · 18:50T. Jr4281111123P. Cibik361196101
WSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr48121411113P. Cibik421016881
WAug 30 · 19:20T. Jr43111011113P. Cibik32712671
WMay 28 · 08:25T. Jr341111123P. Cibik2688100
WMay 1 · 16:20T. Jr44111111113P. Cibik29281361
WApr 28 · 12:20T. Jr341111123P. Cibik2569100
WApr 21 · 16:50T. Jr541013911113P. Cibik44121111372
WApr 7 · 11:20T. Jr371511113P. Cibik2513840
WMar 6 · 23:05T. Jr331111113P. Cibik178450
T. Jr10
WSep 22 · 18:20L. Vich1.83118861T. Jr1.8371111113WSep 21 · 14:00T. Jr1.20111111113M. Kolbusovsky3.80881391LSep 21 · 12:50J. Vintr2.2512155113T. Jr1.5710131181WSep 21 · 11:50T. Jr1.53111111113M. Kolbusovsky2.38691381WSep 21 · 10:20S. Matousch3.00107100T. Jr1.361211123LSep 20 · 21:55T. Jr1.271110771P. Cibik3.3081211113WSep 20 · 20:50T. Jr1.73117118113Z. Vyskocil2.0091141142WSep 20 · 19:20L. Vich1.807760T. Jr1.911111113WSep 20 · 18:50P. Cibik3.401196101T. Jr1.3081111123WSep 18 · 13:25T. Jr1.8013117113P. Kubat1.911191141
P. Cibik10
LSep 22 · 20:20L. Vich1.83711411123P. Cibik1.83117113102WSep 22 · 18:50P. Cibik2.50912811113T. Barsa1.50111011972WSep 20 · 21:55T. Jr1.271110771P. Cibik3.3081211113WSep 20 · 20:20L. Vich2.5091111882P. Cibik1.50118611113WSep 20 · 19:50Z. Vyskocil1.67991151P. Cibik2.1011118113LSep 20 · 18:50P. Cibik3.401196101T. Jr1.3081111123LSep 18 · 17:54R. Zeman2.20119311113P. Cibik1.6191111792WSep 18 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.63413941P. Cibik1.44111111113WSep 18 · 15:50M. Nemec2.385790P. Cibik1.531111113LSep 18 · 14:50P. Cibik1.44611951R. Zeman2.6311911113
Upcoming Matches
T. Jr
P. Cibik
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.