TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Vich vs Pavel Cibik 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Lukas Vich
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111174111131210
Pavel Cibik
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Vich above · Pavel Cibik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 87 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Vich 39–34 Pavel Cibik Pavel Cibik has won 34 of their 73 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:35What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Cibik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-34 in 73
Vich
Correct
gap of 5 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vich 1515 vs Cibik 1557
Cibik
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vich 40% vs Cibik 100%
Cibik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vich 50% vs Cibik 70%
Cibik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vich +1 · Cibik +5
Cibik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cibik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cibik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVich 1.83 / Cibik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cibik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13176816
Vich1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Cibik1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVich4wins
AwayCibik6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVichn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCibik62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vich2Cibik8n = 10Cibik took 8 of 10
S2Vich6Cibik4n = 10Vich took 6 of 10
S3Vich5Cibik5n = 10split evenly
S4Vich6Cibik3n = 9Vich took 6 of 9
S5Vich2Cibik4n = 6Cibik took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVichCibikV − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match40.740.0+0.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVichCibikBasisWin rate · lifetime241 / 516 vs 317 / 68346.7%46.4%241 / 516 vs 317 / 683Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikVich 1.83/Cibik 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 20:20L. Vich4791111882P. Cibik47118611113
WSep 14 · 18:20L. Vich46471113113P. Cibik51111191192
LSep 7 · 18:20L. Vich4591111952P. Cibik43113711113
WAug 11 · 20:20L. Vich4181111113P. Cibik29118461
WAug 5 · 20:50L. Vich3811511113P. Cibik24111481
LAug 4 · 21:54L. Vich4491181152P. Cibik45114118113
LAug 4 · 18:20L. Vich371110791P. Cibik3951211113
LJul 26 · 21:53L. Vich185760P. Cibik331111113
WJul 26 · 20:55L. Vich51811911123P. Cibik45118115102
LJul 17 · 18:20L. Vich4071151162P. Cibik44116115113
L. Vich10
WSep 22 · 19:20L. Vich2.38711611113T. Barsa1.5311511372LSep 22 · 18:20L. Vich1.83118861T. Jr1.8371111113WSep 20 · 21:25Z. Vyskocil1.8510850L. Vich1.851211113LSep 20 · 20:20L. Vich2.5091111882P. Cibik1.50118611113LSep 20 · 19:20L. Vich1.807760T. Jr1.911111113LSep 20 · 18:20L. Vich2.007180Z. Vyskocil1.731111113WSep 14 · 22:00S. Matousch1.9013871182L. Vich1.801111117113WSep 14 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil1.73111031182L. Vich2.00912117113LSep 14 · 19:50L. Vich1.618570S. Matousch2.201111113WSep 14 · 18:20P. Cibik1.83111191192L. Vich1.83471113113
P. Cibik10
WSep 22 · 19:50T. Jr1.3071011101P. Cibik3.4011126123WSep 22 · 18:50P. Cibik2.50912811113T. Barsa1.50111011972WSep 20 · 21:55T. Jr1.271110771P. Cibik3.3081211113WSep 20 · 20:20L. Vich2.5091111882P. Cibik1.50118611113WSep 20 · 19:50Z. Vyskocil1.67991151P. Cibik2.1011118113LSep 20 · 18:50P. Cibik3.401196101T. Jr1.3081111123LSep 18 · 17:54R. Zeman2.20119311113P. Cibik1.6191111792WSep 18 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.63413941P. Cibik1.44111111113WSep 18 · 15:50M. Nemec2.385790P. Cibik1.531111113LSep 14 · 18:20P. Cibik1.83111191192L. Vich1.83471113113
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