TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dominik Pasek vs Simon Holik 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Dominik Pasek
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11131191161412––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:55 and never touched — 61.1% is still 61.1%
Graded at full timeSimon Holik to win
61.1%
61.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDominik Pasek above · Simon Holik below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 87 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Simon Holik at 61.1%
87 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:55What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Holik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Pasek 1448 vs Holik 1575
Holik
Wrong
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pasek 80% vs Holik 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pasek 50% vs Holik 70%
Holik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pasek +2 · Holik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holik) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPasek 2.00 / Holik 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Holik)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13194067
Pasek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 9 of 21
Down 0–1, comes back41% 7 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Holik1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 26 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricPasekHolikBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 104 vs 114 / 20845.2%54.8%47 / 104 vs 114 / 208Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolikPasek 2.00/Holik 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Holik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pasek won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
D. Pasek10
WSep 25 · 19:55J. Dohnal1.8311116131D. Pasek1.8313911153WSep 25 · 19:25Z. Muhlhauser2.108990D. Pasek1.671111113LSep 7 · 10:33D. Pasek2.6381171162F. Balcar1.44113117113WSep 7 · 08:55R. Muller1.91111111472D. Pasek1.80139911113WSep 7 · 08:25F. Balcar1.579750D. Pasek2.251111113LSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153LSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113LSep 3 · 20:50D. Pasek2.20147791A. Kral1.61121111113WSep 3 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.80116951D. Pasek1.9191111113LSep 3 · 18:50M. Filipek2.00111310113D. Pasek1.738111251
S. Holik10
LSep 25 · 22:05S. Holik1.7361181142J. Dohnal2.00117114113LSep 25 · 20:25S. Holik1.83137110Z. Muhlhauser1.831511133WSep 25 · 18:55J. Dohnal1.839980S. Holik1.831111113WSep 25 · 13:55F. Dvorak1.671173101S. Holik2.1071111123WSep 25 · 12:20T. Jr2.10711111182S. Holik1.67111347113WSep 25 · 11:50T. Rein2.50921181S. Holik1.5011118113LSep 25 · 10:50S. Holik1.80691151F. Dvorak1.9111116113WSep 18 · 14:30P. Vodal1.8511117111S. Holik1.8591311133WSep 18 · 13:25S. Holik1.801513113O. Knazik1.91131180LSep 18 · 11:55P. Vodal1.83131112113S. Holik1.8311131081
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.