TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Simon Holik vs Jaroslav Dohnal 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611117811114411
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
How it is goingSimon Holik above · Jaroslav Dohnal below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 84 set 5, 4-11
84 points played in total.
H2H Simon Holik 5–6 Jaroslav Dohnal Simon Holik has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Holik beat Dohnal 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Holik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dohnal form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolik 1.73 / Dohnal 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Holik)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13197330
Holik1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 26 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Dohnal2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 13 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back36% 5 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolik5wins
AwayDohnal5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolik100%3 of 3
AwayDohnal71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holik3Dohnal7n = 10Dohnal took 7 of 10
S2Holik6Dohnal4n = 10Holik took 6 of 10
S3Holik5Dohnal5n = 10split evenly
S4Holik3Dohnal3n = 6split evenly
S5Holik2Dohnal1n = 3Holik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolikDohnalH − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.937.5+0.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolikDohnalBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 209 vs 390 / 66754.6%58.5%114 / 209 vs 390 / 667Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.640.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolikHolik 1.73/Dohnal 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Holik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dohnal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 18:55S. Holik331111113J. Dohnal269980
WAug 30 · 11:50S. Holik49881111113J. Dohnal4211119562
WAug 29 · 13:25S. Holik4112711113J. Dohnal341011851
LJun 28 · 17:20S. Holik229580J. Dohnal331111113
WJun 28 · 15:20S. Holik521011911113J. Dohnal3912411752
WMay 2 · 12:55S. Holik351111133J. Dohnal2375110
LApr 12 · 13:29S. Holik53611116192J. Dohnal60119811213
LApr 12 · 12:20S. Holik2791170J. Dohnal351113113
LJun 15 · 14:20S. Holik351011771J. Dohnal4212811113
LJun 15 · 12:40S. Holik32911571J. Dohnal4111811113
S. Holik10
LSep 25 · 21:25D. Pasek2.00111111143S. Holik1.731396121LSep 25 · 20:25S. Holik1.83137110Z. Muhlhauser1.831511133WSep 25 · 18:55J. Dohnal1.839980S. Holik1.831111113WSep 25 · 13:55F. Dvorak1.671173101S. Holik2.1071111123WSep 25 · 12:20T. Jr2.10711111182S. Holik1.67111347113WSep 25 · 11:50T. Rein2.50921181S. Holik1.5011118113LSep 25 · 10:50S. Holik1.80691151F. Dvorak1.9111116113WSep 18 · 14:30P. Vodal1.8511117111S. Holik1.8591311133WSep 18 · 13:25S. Holik1.801513113O. Knazik1.91131180LSep 18 · 11:55P. Vodal1.83131112113S. Holik1.8311131081
J. Dohnal10
LSep 25 · 20:55J. Dohnal1.9191070Z. Muhlhauser1.801112113LSep 25 · 19:55J. Dohnal1.8311116131D. Pasek1.8313911153LSep 25 · 18:55J. Dohnal1.839980S. Holik1.831111113LSep 20 · 18:30A. Jr2.2012119113J. Dohnal1.611041191WSep 20 · 17:25B. Budik1.72114971J. Dohnal2.0091111113LSep 20 · 16:25J. Dohnal1.401111561A. Jr2.7561311113WSep 20 · 14:55T. Rein2.3812660J. Dohnal1.531411113WSep 19 · 22:04T. Rein2.2510113101J. Dohnal1.5712511123LSep 19 · 21:25J. Dohnal2.1095111182B. Budik1.53111169113LSep 19 · 19:55T. Rein2.63711711123J. Dohnal1.44117119102
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