TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Raska vs Jan Przybyla 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Michal Raska
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11412141113911––
Jan Przybyla
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:02 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeJan Przybyla to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Raska above · Jan Przybyla below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 85 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jan Przybyla at 58.3%
85 points played in total.
H2H Michal Raska 12–13 Jan Przybyla Michal Raska has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:02What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Przybyla
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-13 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Raska 1482 vs Przybyla 1425
Raska
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Raska 20% vs Przybyla 60%
Przybyla
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Raska 20% vs Przybyla 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Raska -3 · Przybyla -1
Raska
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Przybyla) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Raska form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRaska 2.00 / Przybyla 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Przybyla)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13188294
Raska2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 23)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 67 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back23% 15 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Przybyla1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 20)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite46% won 39 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it81% 21 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it64% 28 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRaska5wins
AwayPrzybyla5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRaska66.7%4 of 6
AwayPrzybyla75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Raska6Przybyla4n = 10Raska took 6 of 10
S2Raska4Przybyla6n = 10Przybyla took 6 of 10
S3Raska6Przybyla4n = 10Raska took 6 of 10
S4Raska6Przybyla2n = 8Raska took 6 of 8
S5Raska0Przybyla3n = 3Przybyla took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRaskaPrzybylaR − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.140.0+1.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRaskaPrzybylaBasisWin rate · lifetime238 / 502 vs 224 / 43947.4%51%238 / 502 vs 224 / 439Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PrzybylaRaska 2.00/Przybyla 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Przybyla · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Przybyla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 12:49M. Raska45121111113J. Przybyla381081371
LAug 12 · 11:45M. Raska48121110872J. Przybyla501061211113
WJun 21 · 21:05M. Raska331111113J. Przybyla197750
LJun 21 · 18:40M. Raska5699171292J. Przybyla5811111510113
LJun 11 · 21:10M. Raska218670J. Przybyla331111113
WJun 11 · 19:40M. Raska3611311113J. Przybyla36811891
WJun 3 · 17:15M. Raska43101111113J. Przybyla32126681
WJun 3 · 15:15M. Raska4711718113J. Przybyla415111691
LJun 1 · 20:15M. Raska46114101292J. Przybyla539111210113
LMay 28 · 18:45M. Raska366101191J. Przybyla4011126113
M. Raska10
LSep 24 · 18:45M. Raska1.9111611992V. Reska1.80611911113LSep 23 · 12:43M. Raska2.6311101271T. Krenek1.4491214113LSep 23 · 12:10R. Solle1.7311611153M. Raska2.008116131LSep 23 · 11:10M. Raska2.10711391L. Kantor1.6711811113WSep 23 · 09:40T. Krenek1.441168101M. Raska2.6351111123LSep 22 · 12:39M. Raska2.10119951A. Cizek1.6741111113WSep 22 · 12:10A. Cizek1.7381010M. Raska2.001112113LSep 22 · 11:10M. Raska2.2088130M. Moravec1.611111153LSep 22 · 09:40L. Kantor1.671111113M. Raska2.105570LAug 19 · 20:40D. Branny1.73111111113M. Raska2.00139761
J. Przybyla10
LSep 20 · 09:15P. Marsalek1.531213113J. Przybyla2.38101140WSep 20 · 08:10T. Molin1.80911881J. Przybyla1.9111511113WSep 20 · 07:10J. Przybyla2.10123611113A. Cizek1.67101111892LSep 20 · 05:40P. Marsalek1.6111611153J. Przybyla2.209119131WSep 18 · 20:38V. Reska1.5777100J. Przybyla2.251111123LSep 18 · 20:15J. Przybyla2.0011460V. Reska1.731311113LSep 18 · 18:45D. Branny1.6741111113J. Przybyla2.10117271LSep 18 · 18:15T. Molin1.8391111113J. Przybyla1.83116971LSep 17 · 20:50J. Przybyla1.83512661D. Osvald1.83111011113LSep 17 · 19:45D. Branny1.831111113J. Przybyla1.836340
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