TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Raska vs Michal Moravec 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Michal Raska
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8118111315––––
Michal Moravec
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:30 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Raska to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Raska above · Michal Moravec below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Point 66 set 3, 13-15 — our read held Michal Raska at 55.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Michal Raska 3–2 Michal Moravec Michal Moravec has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:30What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Raska 1501 vs Moravec 1599
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Raska 0% vs Moravec 80%
Moravec
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Raska 40% vs Moravec 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Raska -5 · Moravec +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRaska 2.20 / Moravec 1.61
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Moravec)-0.4pp
TT Cup · #13173289
Raska2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 66 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back24% 15 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Moravec1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 49 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it75% 36 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeRaska3wins
AwayMoravec2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderRaska leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRaska100%3 of 3
AwayMoravecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Raska3Moravec2n = 5Raska took 3 of 5
S2Raska3Moravec2n = 5Raska took 3 of 5
S3Raska2Moravec3n = 5Moravec took 3 of 5
S4Raska3Moravec2n = 5Raska took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricRaskaMoravecR − MBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match41.238.0+3.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRaskaMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 495 vs 198 / 39247.7%50.5%236 / 495 vs 198 / 392Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecRaska 2.20/Moravec 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.3%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WJul 24 · 17:18M. Raska42114511113M. Moravec4371111772
LJul 24 · 15:15M. Raska4661211892M. Moravec481110511113
LApr 19 · 20:55M. Raska36811981M. Moravec3911611113
WApr 19 · 18:15M. Raska4011117113M. Moravec29741171
WMar 24 · 11:10M. Raska4211911113M. Moravec31711941
M. Raska10
LSep 22 · 12:39M. Raska2.10119951A. Cizek1.6741111113WSep 22 · 12:10A. Cizek1.7381010M. Raska2.001112113LSep 22 · 09:40L. Kantor1.671111113M. Raska2.105570LAug 19 · 20:40D. Branny1.73111111113M. Raska2.00139761LAug 19 · 20:15M. Raska1.73113521J. Volny2.0061111113LAug 19 · 18:45D. Branny1.6791111113M. Raska2.10115791LAug 19 · 18:15T. Molin1.67411116113M. Raska2.1011561182WAug 18 · 13:20R. Sedlacek1.3311681192M. Raska3.25611118113WAug 18 · 12:15M. Raska2.2516128113D. Jr1.5714101171LAug 18 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.401111113M. Raska2.757970
M. Moravec10
WSep 22 · 11:40L. Kantor1.809930M. Moravec1.911111113WSep 22 · 10:10M. Moravec1.441111143A. Cizek2.6366120WSep 22 · 08:53M. Moravec2.001111113R. Benes1.732460WSep 22 · 08:15M. Moravec2.00111182113T. Kindl1.7397111182LSep 22 · 06:45T. Krenek1.8081118113M. Moravec1.911171691WSep 22 · 06:15R. Benes1.9111691192M. Moravec1.80711116113WSep 21 · 12:50T. Kindl1.508151091M. Moravec2.50111312113LSep 21 · 12:15M. Moravec2.00811811112T. Kindl1.73115118133LSep 21 · 10:45T. Krenek1.9112811113M. Moravec1.801011691LSep 21 · 10:15R. Benes2.009101111123M. Moravec1.73111296102
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