TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Michal Moravec
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111158111181113
Tomas Kindl
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Kindl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Moravec above · Tomas Kindl below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 97 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Tomas Kindl at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Michal Moravec 3–3 Tomas Kindl Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:04What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kindl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1566 vs Kindl 1507
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 0% vs Kindl 20%
Kindl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 50% vs Kindl 10%
Moravec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec -5 · Kindl -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kindl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kindl form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 2.00 / Kindl 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kindl)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13166586
Moravec2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 39 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back28% 15 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Kindl1.73
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 57 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it74% 39 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMoravec3wins
AwayKindl3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKindl75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec2Kindl4n = 6Kindl took 4 of 6
S2Moravec2Kindl4n = 6Kindl took 4 of 6
S3Moravec3Kindl3n = 6split evenly
S4Moravec3Kindl1n = 4Moravec took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricMoravecKindlM − KBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match37.339.0−1.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecKindlBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 385 vs 215 / 43250.1%49.8%193 / 385 vs 215 / 432Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.941.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KindlMoravec 2.00/Kindl 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kindl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kindl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 16 · 10:10M. Moravec4011117113T. Kindl36791191
LSep 1 · 12:10M. Moravec237880T. Kindl331111113
LAug 3 · 11:45M. Moravec226790T. Kindl331111113
WApr 23 · 11:10M. Moravec44101111123T. Kindl381288101
LMar 3 · 10:05M. Moravec4758111582T. Kindl531111713113
WMar 3 · 07:10M. Moravec481141111113T. Kindl4151191332
M. Moravec10
WSep 21 · 12:50T. Kindl1.508151091M. Moravec2.50111312113LSep 21 · 10:45T. Krenek1.9112811113M. Moravec1.801011691LSep 21 · 10:15R. Benes2.009101111123M. Moravec1.73111296102LSep 18 · 16:55K. Baros2.50111111113M. Moravec1.50871351LSep 18 · 15:45A. Cizek2.751411113M. Moravec1.4012730LSep 18 · 15:15K. Baros2.6311128113M. Moravec1.449101181WSep 18 · 14:15M. Moravec1.3381114113T. Molin3.251181281WSep 17 · 17:15M. Moravec1.5011119113K. Baros2.50981151WSep 17 · 15:40A. Cizek2.505118111M. Moravec1.5011811133WSep 17 · 15:10K. Baros2.50911781M. Moravec1.5011711113
T. Kindl10
LSep 21 · 12:50T. Kindl1.508151091M. Moravec2.50111312113LSep 21 · 11:15T. Kindl1.9181141192R. Benes1.80119118113LSep 21 · 09:45T. Krenek1.83116115113T. Kindl1.8321151192LSep 18 · 08:44T. Kindl1.8361181152E. Precek1.83115116113WSep 18 · 07:40T. Kindl1.91138911113E. Precek1.80111111672LSep 18 · 06:40T. Kindl2.00112111172R. Sedlacek1.73611137113LSep 18 · 05:40T. Kindl1.83714891L. Kantor1.83111211113LSep 17 · 08:45D. Jr1.83513711113T. Kindl1.83111111472LSep 17 · 07:45L. Slavik1.83911118113T. Kindl1.8311391142LSep 17 · 07:15R. Benes1.80841111113T. Kindl1.9111116762
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