TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13145316
Played Sep 17Finished
Dalibor Velky Jr
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5111311711114117
Tomas Kindl
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:43 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeDalibor Velky Jr to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDalibor Velky Jr above · Tomas Kindl below
Set 1 · 5-10
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 89 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Dalibor Velky Jr at 66.3%
89 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Dalibor Velky Jr 11–5 Tomas Kindl Tomas Kindl has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Jr beat Kindl 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:43What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kindl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-5 in 16
Jr
Correct
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1610 vs Kindl 1513
Jr
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 20% vs Kindl 0%
Jr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 40% vs Kindl 10%
Jr
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -2 · Kindl -5
Kindl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kindl form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.83 / Kindl 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jr)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13145316
Jr1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Kindl1.83
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr7wins
AwayKindl3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr100%6 of 6
AwayKindl75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr6Kindl4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Jr8Kindl2n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S3Jr4Kindl6n = 10Kindl took 6 of 10
S4Jr3Kindl4n = 7Kindl took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrKindlJ − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.438.5+3.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrKindlBasisWin rate · lifetime268 / 538 vs 214 / 42549.8%50.4%268 / 538 vs 214 / 425Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.541.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.83/Kindl 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 06:15D. Jr52111812113T. Kindl435161481
WSep 8 · 12:35D. Jr44111111113T. Kindl34791351
LSep 8 · 12:10D. Jr224990T. Kindl331111113
LSep 7 · 09:40D. Jr4110111191T. Kindl4312713113
WAug 21 · 06:45D. Jr6410112210113T. Kindl53122201272
WAug 5 · 07:10D. Jr341111123T. Kindl2798100
LJul 19 · 18:40D. Jr35781191T. Kindl3711114113
WJul 7 · 08:40D. Jr361114113T. Kindl2891270
WJul 7 · 06:10D. Jr44111111113T. Kindl38981381
WJul 1 · 06:10D. Jr521111118113T. Kindl4998131182
D. Jr10
LSep 17 · 08:15D. Jr1.731171271R. Benes2.0051114113LSep 17 · 06:45L. Slavik1.8371211133D. Jr1.8311107111WSep 17 · 06:15T. Kindl1.735161481D. Jr2.00111812113LSep 15 · 12:53M. Macurak1.7391111113D. Jr2.00119971LSep 15 · 12:10D. Jr2.0012101112102L. Kantor1.731412910123LSep 15 · 10:40M. Macurak1.73121111123D. Jr2.001458101WSep 15 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.57911101142D. Jr2.25113124113LSep 13 · 21:14M. Macurak1.8311136113D. Jr1.835111181WSep 13 · 19:40M. Macurak1.67101191182D. Jr2.10124116113WSep 13 · 19:10R. Sedlacek1.536980D. Jr2.381111113
T. Kindl10
LSep 17 · 07:45L. Slavik1.83911118113T. Kindl1.8311391142LSep 17 · 07:15R. Benes1.80841111113T. Kindl1.9111116762LSep 17 · 06:15T. Kindl1.735161481D. Jr2.00111812113LSep 16 · 12:40L. Dzida1.83581111123T. Kindl1.83111189102LSep 16 · 11:40D. Pawlik1.731281111113T. Kindl2.0014117992LSep 16 · 11:10L. Dzida1.9111611113T. Kindl1.80711831LSep 16 · 10:10T. Kindl1.57791191M. Moravec2.2511117113WSep 16 · 08:33D. Vitasek2.001110170T. Kindl1.731312193LSep 16 · 08:10T. Kindl1.834790D. Vitasek1.831111113LSep 16 · 06:40M. Macurak1.831011118113T. Kindl1.8312651112
Upcoming Matches
D. Jr
T. Kindl
Nothing scheduled
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