TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Tomas Kindl
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811119411118911
Radek Benes
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Kindl above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 93 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Radek Benes at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kindl 14–15 Radek Benes Tomas Kindl has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:04What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-15 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kindl 1507 vs Benes 1574
Benes
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kindl 20% vs Benes 60%
Benes
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kindl 10% vs Benes 50%
Benes
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kindl -2 · Benes +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kindl form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKindl 1.91 / Benes 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Benes)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13166614
Kindl1.91
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 49 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back25% 14 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25
Benes1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 170 of 301
Up 2–0, closes it94% 73 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it76% 116 of 153
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKindl4wins
AwayBenes6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKindl60%3 of 5
AwayBenes80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kindl5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S2Kindl7Benes3n = 10Kindl took 7 of 10
S3Kindl6Benes4n = 10Kindl took 6 of 10
S4Kindl3Benes5n = 8Benes took 5 of 8
S5Kindl1Benes4n = 5Benes took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKindlBenesK − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.341.4−0.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKindlBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 432 vs 504 / 97149.8%51.9%215 / 432 vs 504 / 971Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match41.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesKindl 1.91/Benes 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 11:15T. Kindl4381141192R. Benes50119118113
LSep 17 · 07:15T. Kindl4111116762R. Benes45841111113
WSep 14 · 12:15T. Kindl351111133R. Benes2458110
WSep 7 · 10:40T. Kindl331111113R. Benes228950
LAug 26 · 16:10T. Kindl29491151R. Benes4111118113
WAug 5 · 08:44T. Kindl48111196113R. Benes4093111162
LAug 5 · 06:10T. Kindl4014106101R. Benes47121211123
WAug 3 · 10:45T. Kindl46101111143R. Benes401297121
LAug 1 · 13:40T. Kindl49912111072R. Benes521110812113
LJul 20 · 09:08T. Kindl49711111192R. Benes53111399113
T. Kindl10
WSep 21 · 12:15M. Moravec2.00811811112T. Kindl1.73115118133LSep 21 · 09:45T. Krenek1.83116115113T. Kindl1.8321151192LSep 18 · 08:44T. Kindl1.8361181152E. Precek1.83115116113WSep 18 · 07:40T. Kindl1.91138911113E. Precek1.80111111672LSep 18 · 06:40T. Kindl2.00112111172R. Sedlacek1.73611137113LSep 18 · 05:40T. Kindl1.83714891L. Kantor1.83111211113LSep 17 · 08:45D. Jr1.83513711113T. Kindl1.83111111472LSep 17 · 07:45L. Slavik1.83911118113T. Kindl1.8311391142LSep 17 · 07:15R. Benes1.80841111113T. Kindl1.9111116762LSep 17 · 06:15T. Kindl1.735161481D. Jr2.00111812113
R. Benes10
LSep 21 · 11:45T. Krenek1.831213113R. Benes1.83101160WSep 21 · 10:15R. Benes2.009101111123M. Moravec1.73111296102LSep 21 · 09:19R. Benes2.0011116101T. Krenek1.7313911123WSep 21 · 08:15I. Heuman2.10119861R. Benes1.6751111113LSep 21 · 07:15R. Benes1.807890D. Pawlik1.911111113WSep 21 · 05:45T. Krenek1.80117991R. Benes1.9171111113LSep 19 · 13:15F. Chaloupka1.6081111113R. Benes2.07117881WSep 19 · 12:15R. Sedlacek2.008680R. Benes1.731111113LSep 19 · 11:15R. Benes2.10611461F. Chaloupka1.6711911113WSep 17 · 07:15R. Benes1.80841111113T. Kindl1.9111116762
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