TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Raska vs Ales Cizek 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Michal Raska
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
114911911511––
Ales Cizek
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
How it is goingMichal Raska above · Ales Cizek below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 71 set 4, 5-11
71 points played in total.
H2H Michal Raska 7–10 Ales Cizek Michal Raska has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Raska beat Cizek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Cizek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (0%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRaska 2.10 / Cizek 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Cizek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13177586
Raska2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 66 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back24% 15 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Cizek1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 48 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it84% 36 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRaska5wins
AwayCizek5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRaska62.5%5 of 8
AwayCizekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Raska8Cizek2n = 10Raska took 8 of 10
S2Raska4Cizek6n = 10Cizek took 6 of 10
S3Raska6Cizek4n = 10Raska took 6 of 10
S4Raska3Cizek4n = 7Cizek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRaskaCizekR − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.535.4+1.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRaskaCizekBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 497 vs 230 / 48847.7%47.1%237 / 497 vs 230 / 488Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CizekRaska 2.10/Cizek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Cizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 12:10M. Raska341112113A. Cizek1981010
WAug 18 · 10:15M. Raska3911611113A. Cizek31711581
LJul 4 · 20:45M. Raska2771190A. Cizek351113113
LJul 4 · 18:45M. Raska3931111772A. Cizek43116411113
LJul 1 · 05:40M. Raska481111111052A. Cizek49941312113
LMay 21 · 18:10M. Raska35129681A. Cizek43101111113
WMay 18 · 19:45M. Raska3711312113A. Cizek357111071
WMar 28 · 21:45M. Raska4211812113A. Cizek368111071
WMar 28 · 21:15M. Raska331111113A. Cizek209380
LMar 27 · 13:50M. Raska31129821A. Cizek43101111113
M. Raska10
WSep 22 · 12:10A. Cizek1.7381010M. Raska2.001112113LSep 22 · 11:10M. Raska2.2088130M. Moravec1.611111153LSep 22 · 09:40L. Kantor1.671111113M. Raska2.105570LAug 19 · 20:40D. Branny1.73111111113M. Raska2.00139761LAug 19 · 20:15M. Raska1.73113521J. Volny2.0061111113LAug 19 · 18:45D. Branny1.6791111113M. Raska2.10115791LAug 19 · 18:15T. Molin1.67411116113M. Raska2.1011561182WAug 18 · 13:20R. Sedlacek1.3311681192M. Raska3.25611118113WAug 18 · 12:15M. Raska2.2516128113D. Jr1.5714101171LAug 18 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.401111113M. Raska2.757970
A. Cizek10
LSep 22 · 12:10A. Cizek1.7381010M. Raska2.001112113LSep 22 · 10:40L. Kantor2.001711127113A. Cizek1.73197101142LSep 22 · 10:10M. Moravec1.441111143A. Cizek2.6366120LSep 20 · 08:44A. Cizek1.5710770T. Molin2.251211113LSep 20 · 07:40P. Marsalek1.73116511113A. Cizek2.0071111692LSep 20 · 07:10J. Przybyla2.10123611113A. Cizek1.67101111892WSep 20 · 06:10A. Cizek1.61781111113T. Molin2.2011118672WSep 18 · 17:25T. Molin4.0041311762A. Cizek1.221111711113WSep 18 · 15:45A. Cizek2.751411113M. Moravec1.4012730LSep 18 · 14:45A. Cizek1.4461111782T. Molin2.63118711113
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