TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ales Cizek vs Michal Raska 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Ales Cizek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012111––––
Michal Raska
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:29 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeAles Cizek to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Cizek above · Michal Raska below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 1-11
Point 53 set 3, 1-11 — our read held Ales Cizek at 58.6%
53 points played in total.
H2H Ales Cizek 10–6 Michal Raska Michal Raska has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:29What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cizek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Cizek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1471 vs Raska 1491
Raska
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 0% vs Raska 0%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 40% vs Raska 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek -5 · Raska -6
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cizek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Raska form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 1.73 / Raska 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cizek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13173281
Cizek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 48 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it84% 36 of 43
Raska2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 66 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back24% 15 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCizek6wins
AwayRaska4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCizek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCizek100%3 of 3
AwayRaska57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek3Raska7n = 10Raska took 7 of 10
S2Cizek6Raska4n = 10Cizek took 6 of 10
S3Cizek4Raska6n = 10Raska took 6 of 10
S4Cizek5Raska3n = 8Cizek took 5 of 8
S5Cizek3Raska0n = 3Cizek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCizekRaskaC − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.837.9−0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekRaskaBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 487 vs 236 / 49647.2%47.6%230 / 487 vs 236 / 496Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CizekCizek 1.73/Raska 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Cizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Raska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 10:15A. Cizek31711581M. Raska3911611113
WJul 4 · 20:45A. Cizek351113113M. Raska2771190
WJul 4 · 18:45A. Cizek43116411113M. Raska3931111772
WJul 1 · 05:40A. Cizek49941312113M. Raska481111111052
WMay 21 · 18:10A. Cizek43101111113M. Raska35129681
LMay 18 · 19:45A. Cizek357111071M. Raska3711312113
LMar 28 · 21:45A. Cizek368111071M. Raska4211812113
LMar 28 · 21:15A. Cizek209380M. Raska331111113
WMar 27 · 13:50A. Cizek43101111113M. Raska31129821
WMar 27 · 12:10A. Cizek43114611113M. Raska4891111982
A. Cizek10
WSep 22 · 12:39M. Raska2.10119951A. Cizek1.6741111113LSep 22 · 10:40L. Kantor2.001711127113A. Cizek1.73197101142LSep 22 · 10:10M. Moravec1.441111143A. Cizek2.6366120LSep 20 · 08:44A. Cizek1.5710770T. Molin2.251211113LSep 20 · 07:40P. Marsalek1.73116511113A. Cizek2.0071111692LSep 20 · 07:10J. Przybyla2.10123611113A. Cizek1.67101111892WSep 20 · 06:10A. Cizek1.61781111113T. Molin2.2011118672WSep 18 · 17:25T. Molin4.0041311762A. Cizek1.221111711113WSep 18 · 15:45A. Cizek2.751411113M. Moravec1.4012730LSep 18 · 14:45A. Cizek1.4461111782T. Molin2.63118711113
M. Raska10
LSep 22 · 12:39M. Raska2.10119951A. Cizek1.6741111113LSep 22 · 11:10M. Raska2.2088130M. Moravec1.611111153LSep 22 · 09:40L. Kantor1.671111113M. Raska2.105570LAug 19 · 20:40D. Branny1.73111111113M. Raska2.00139761LAug 19 · 20:15M. Raska1.73113521J. Volny2.0061111113LAug 19 · 18:45D. Branny1.6791111113M. Raska2.10115791LAug 19 · 18:15T. Molin1.67411116113M. Raska2.1011561182WAug 18 · 13:20R. Sedlacek1.3311681192M. Raska3.25611118113WAug 18 · 12:15M. Raska2.2516128113D. Jr1.5714101171LAug 18 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.401111113M. Raska2.757970
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