TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Patrik Sturma vs Zdenek Chovancik 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Patrik Sturma
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
111511311––––
Zdenek Chovancik
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:42 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Zdenek Chovancik below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 42 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 55.4%
42 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Sturma 7–9 Zdenek Chovancik Patrik Sturma has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:42What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sturma
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-9 in 16
Chovancik
Correct
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1307 vs Chovancik 1310
Chovancik
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 40% vs Chovancik 20%
Sturma
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 30% vs Chovancik 50%
Chovancik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma +1 · Chovancik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Sturma)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chovancik form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 1.67 / Chovancik 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Sturma)-0.4pp
TT Cup · #13186800
Sturma1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite47% won 61 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it89% 23 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it50% 33 of 66
Chovancik2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 14 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back27% 4 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSturma5wins
AwayChovancik5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturma66.7%4 of 6
AwayChovancik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma6Chovancik4n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S2Sturma5Chovancik5n = 10split evenly
S3Sturma5Chovancik5n = 10split evenly
S4Sturma5Chovancik3n = 8Sturma took 5 of 8
S5Sturma2Chovancik3n = 5Chovancik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSturmaChovancikS − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.540.0−0.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaChovancikBasisWin rate · lifetime426 / 876 vs 34 / 8648.6%39.5%426 / 876 vs 34 / 86Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaSturma 1.67/Chovancik 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.4%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chovancik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 11:10P. Sturma40111152113Z. Chovancik4277111162
LSep 11 · 11:15P. Sturma4511961272Z. Chovancik507111110113
LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma341061171Z. Chovancik4112117113
WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma47511611143Z. Chovancik46114118122
LJul 10 · 08:45P. Sturma32681171Z. Chovancik3911116113
LJul 10 · 07:10P. Sturma4211691152Z. Chovancik50911118113
WJun 23 · 10:15P. Sturma331111113Z. Chovancik227870
WFeb 6 · 12:45P. Sturma361213113Z. Chovancik22101110
WFeb 2 · 17:46P. Sturma4211613123Z. Chovancik3861111101
LFeb 2 · 16:40P. Sturma44911212102Z. Chovancik501161110123
P. Sturma10
LSep 24 · 11:45P. Sturma1.911187101L. Zustina1.8061111123WSep 24 · 09:45P. Sturma1.7371111113R. Sedivy2.00117991LSep 19 · 16:36J. Jnr1.361111113P. Sturma3.007880LSep 19 · 16:10P. Sturma3.0046100P. Chvojka1.361111123WSep 19 · 14:40I. Jemelka1.8012111041P. Sturma1.9114412113LSep 19 · 14:10J. Jnr2.2071411113P. Sturma1.611112891LSep 19 · 12:40F. Mandrysz2.00611139113P. Sturma1.73115111192LSep 19 · 12:10P. Sturma1.91119691F. Mandrysz1.8091111113LSep 19 · 10:40J. Sindler1.731511133P. Sturma2.00137110WSep 19 · 10:10J. Jnr2.00119131182P. Sturma1.73611155113
Z. Chovancik10
WSep 24 · 10:15L. Zustina1.8041150Z. Chovancik1.911113113LSep 18 · 12:40L. Snr1.2512117113Z. Chovancik3.751081161LSep 18 · 11:40J. Jnr1.671111113Z. Chovancik2.109870LSep 18 · 11:10P. Sturma2.00111152113Z. Chovancik1.7377111162LSep 18 · 10:10Z. Chovancik2.507570L. Snr1.501111113LSep 11 · 13:20Z. Chovancik1.771970J. Sindler1.871111113WSep 11 · 12:15J. Sindler1.8011660Z. Chovancik1.911311113WSep 11 · 11:15Z. Chovancik1.837111110113P. Sturma1.8311961272WSep 11 · 09:45T. Stempak1.8091161182Z. Chovancik1.91118119113WSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113
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