TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Zustina vs Zdenek Chovancik 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Lukas Zustina
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
4111113511––––
Zdenek Chovancik
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Zustina to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Zustina above · Zdenek Chovancik below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 55 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Lukas Zustina at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Zustina 0–1 Zdenek Chovancik Lukas Zustina has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:53What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zustina
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Zustina 1282 vs Chovancik 1324
Chovancik
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zustina 0% vs Chovancik 0%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zustina 20% vs Chovancik 50%
Chovancik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zustina -5 · Chovancik -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zustina)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chovancik form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZustina 1.80 / Chovancik 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zustina)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13186812
Zustina1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Sep 16) · back after a break
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite32% won 11 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it47% 7 of 15
Chovancik1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 18)
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 14 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back27% 4 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeZustina0wins
AwayChovancik1wins
Chovancik leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricZustinaChovancikZ − CBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match20.035.0−15.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZustinaChovancikBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 112 vs 35 / 8745.5%40.2%51 / 112 vs 35 / 87Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZustinaZustina 1.80/Chovancik 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Zustina · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chovancik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 24 · 10:15L. Zustina2041150Z. Chovancik351113113
L. Zustina10
WSep 24 · 11:45P. Sturma1.911187101L. Zustina1.8061111123WSep 24 · 11:15R. Sedivy3.004830L. Zustina1.361111113LSep 16 · 12:48L. Jr1.531111113L. Zustina2.388670LSep 16 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.251111113L. Zustina1.577790LSep 16 · 11:15L. Jr1.73111111113L. Zustina2.00139571LSep 16 · 10:15L. Zustina2.25861191J. Sindler1.5711119113LSep 16 · 08:50L. Snr1.571111113L. Zustina2.253770WSep 16 · 07:45L. Zustina2.2511117113J. Sindler1.57791171LSep 16 · 06:45L. Zustina1.834970L. Snr1.831111113LSep 16 · 05:45L. Zustina1.6710770R. Zajac2.101211113
Z. Chovancik10
WSep 24 · 10:45P. Sturma1.671530Z. Chovancik2.101111113LSep 18 · 12:40L. Snr1.2512117113Z. Chovancik3.751081161LSep 18 · 11:40J. Jnr1.671111113Z. Chovancik2.109870LSep 18 · 11:10P. Sturma2.00111152113Z. Chovancik1.7377111162LSep 18 · 10:10Z. Chovancik2.507570L. Snr1.501111113LSep 11 · 13:20Z. Chovancik1.771970J. Sindler1.871111113WSep 11 · 12:15J. Sindler1.8011660Z. Chovancik1.911311113WSep 11 · 11:15Z. Chovancik1.837111110113P. Sturma1.8311961272WSep 11 · 09:45T. Stempak1.8091161182Z. Chovancik1.91118119113WSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113
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