TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13153545
Played Sep 18Finished
Lukas Krupnik Snr
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210118711116––
Zdenek Chovancik
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:38 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Snr to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Snr above · Zdenek Chovancik below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 76 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Lukas Krupnik Snr at 64.5%
76 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Snr 8–2 Zdenek Chovancik Zdenek Chovancik has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Snr beat Chovancik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:38What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Snr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-2 in 10
Snr
Correct
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snr 1298 vs Chovancik 1291
Snr
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 40% vs Chovancik 20%
Snr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 30% vs Chovancik 50%
Chovancik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr -2 · Chovancik -4
Chovancik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Snr) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 1.25 / Chovancik 3.75
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Snr)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13153545
Snr1.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite43% won 18 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it65% 13 of 20
Chovancik3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 14 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back33% 4 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSnr8wins
AwayChovancik2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSnr leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnr77.8%7 of 9
AwayChovancikn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr9Chovancik1n = 10Snr took 9 of 10
S2Snr7Chovancik3n = 10Snr took 7 of 10
S3Snr6Chovancik4n = 10Snr took 6 of 10
S4Snr3Chovancik2n = 5Snr took 3 of 5
S5Snr2Chovancik1n = 3Snr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSnrChovancikS − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match37.729.2+8.5per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrChovancikBasisWin rate · lifetime61 / 135 vs 33 / 8445.2%39.3%61 / 135 vs 33 / 84Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SnrSnr 1.25/Chovancik 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Snr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 10:10L. Snr331111113Z. Chovancik197570
WAug 17 · 09:15L. Snr331111113Z. Chovancik219480
WAug 17 · 06:45L. Snr331111113Z. Chovancik205690
LJul 13 · 08:40L. Snr33116971Z. Chovancik3411111113
WJul 13 · 08:10L. Snr4011711113Z. Chovancik28611651
LJun 23 · 12:40L. Snr4311118762Z. Chovancik44651111113
WJun 23 · 11:15L. Snr49511814113Z. Chovancik42116111222
WJun 12 · 08:45L. Snr47119511113Z. Chovancik4781111982
WJun 12 · 08:15L. Snr331111113Z. Chovancik205780
WMay 28 · 08:10L. Snr331111113Z. Chovancik173590
L. Snr10
LSep 18 · 12:10L. Snr1.80117841P. Sturma1.9181111113LSep 18 · 10:40J. Jnr1.40121111113L. Snr2.75146561WSep 18 · 10:10Z. Chovancik2.507570L. Snr1.501111113WSep 16 · 08:50L. Snr1.571111113L. Zustina2.253770LSep 16 · 08:15L. Snr1.5793111182R. Zajac2.25111199113WSep 16 · 06:45L. Zustina1.834970L. Snr1.831111113LSep 16 · 06:15J. Sindler1.6171111113L. Snr2.20118661LSep 15 · 08:43J. Matus1.3311611113L. Snr3.25911821LSep 15 · 08:10L. Snr2.25611971J. Matus1.5711911113LSep 15 · 06:40I. Jemelka1.611111113L. Snr2.208680
Z. Chovancik10
LSep 18 · 11:40J. Jnr1.671111113Z. Chovancik2.109870LSep 18 · 11:10P. Sturma2.00111152113Z. Chovancik1.7377111162LSep 18 · 10:10Z. Chovancik2.507570L. Snr1.501111113LSep 11 · 13:20Z. Chovancik1.771970J. Sindler1.871111113WSep 11 · 12:15J. Sindler1.8011660Z. Chovancik1.911311113WSep 11 · 11:15Z. Chovancik1.837111110113P. Sturma1.8311961272WSep 11 · 09:45T. Stempak1.8091161182Z. Chovancik1.91118119113WSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 12:10Z. Chovancik1.5711116113R. Zajac2.25571141LSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122
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